4 Minutes
Market veterans predict a rapid BTC rebound
SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci and Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz told listeners they expect Bitcoin (BTC) to push back toward $70,000 by the end of July 2026. On the latest All Things Markets episode, the two investors mapped out why a combination of shifting sentiment, macro pressure from U.S. debt and inflation dynamics, and evolving crypto regulation could catalyze a fresh rally for BTC.
Scaramucci argued that current negative sentiment is overly pessimistic and can quickly flip into a buying wave. "Markets often overshoot on fear," he said, explaining that a surprising round of demand would likely accelerate momentum through the $70K level. Novogratz offered a more conditional outlook, placing roughly a "70/30" probability on the move if progress on U.S. crypto legislation continues.
Macro backdrop: U.S. debt, inflation and the hard-asset case
Novogratz tied the Bitcoin outlook to the broader fiscal picture. With U.S. debt roughly around $40 trillion, he said policymakers may face limited options other than tolerating higher inflation to reduce the real burden of that debt. For investors, that scenario strengthens demand for scarce stores of value — including Bitcoin. When confidence in fiat and purchasing power diminishes, hard assets often become a preferred hedge.
Still, Novogratz cautioned that if inflation expectations and policy missteps erode public trust, managing price stability could become more difficult. That tension makes BTC attractive as an alternative asset while also introducing volatility risks tied to macro policy reactions.
Regulatory catalyst: CLARITY Act developments
Both leaders flagged the CLARITY Act as a critical variable for U.S. crypto markets. Novogratz said he has met lawmakers from both parties and sees genuine interest in clearer rules for digital assets, though lawmakers remain deadlocked on a few technical points. Key sticking points include ethics provisions and how privacy-enhancing software should be treated under the law.
Galaxy recently revised its internal odds on passage for the CLARITY Act, reflecting growing uncertainty as the Senate calendar tightens. Industry watchers including JPMorgan and Bitwise have also moderated their timelines as the August recess approaches. Progress on the bill could reduce regulatory risk and help institutional investors increase crypto exposure, supporting BTC prices.
Market liquidity: SpaceX IPO and Strategy trades
The SpaceX IPO emerged as a new liquidity tension for crypto. The offering attracted over $250 billion in orders — nearly quadruple the target size — and closed its first trading day roughly 19% above the IPO price, valuing SpaceX above $2.1 trillion. Large allocations to blockbuster tech deals can draw capital away from risk assets like crypto, and Scaramucci and Novogratz flagged that shift as a near-term headwind for digital-asset liquidity.
Meanwhile, strategic moves by institutional Bitcoin holders added another layer of market noise. Strategy (MicroStrategy) sold 32 BTC in a brief transaction before buying 1,550 BTC days later, lifting its total holdings to 845,256 BTC. Michael Saylor continues to spotlight exposure metrics such as Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure basis points to help investors assess corporate Bitcoin risk.
Implications for traders and long-term holders
For traders, the mix of regulatory headlines, macro pressures and high-profile equity listings creates both opportunities and risks. Short-term volatility could intensify around CLARITY Act developments, SpaceX-related capital flows, and data on inflation and debt financing.
Long-term investors will likely remain focused on Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative and its role as a hedge against inflation and fiscal uncertainty. If macro trends push real yields lower and inflation expectations persist, demand for BTC as a hard asset could increase, supporting higher price levels.
Bottom line
Scaramucci and Novogratz see a credible path for Bitcoin to reach $70K by late July, driven by sentiment shifts, fiscal dynamics tied to U.S. debt and inflation, and the potential calming effect of clearer crypto regulation via the CLARITY Act. However, timing depends on several political and market variables — from lawmaking progress to capital flows into mega-IPOs — making this a high-conviction but conditional call for BTC bulls.
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