JP Morgan: US Humanoid Robot Output to Reach 400,000 by 2030

J.P. Morgan projects US production of humanoid robots will reach 300,000 to 400,000 units by 2030 and about 1.5 million units by 2035 as the sector shifts from demonstrations to commercial deployment.

Forecast drivers and policy context

According to a J.P. Morgan report summarized by Reuters, adoption is accelerating in industrial manufacturing, logistics and warehousing because of labor shortages, improving economics and growing production capacity. Businesses are prioritizing automation of repetitive tasks, which is speeding uptake of humanoid systems. The report also notes findings from the Trump administration that importation of robotics and industrial machinery could pose national security risks; those findings may lead to tariffs or other measures to support domestic production.

Costs, constraints and manufacturer targets

J.P. Morgan estimates the cost of humanoid robots is approaching parity with human labor and that operating robots in multiple shifts could save roughly $100,000 per customer per year. The firm cautions, however, that near-term expansion is constrained by hardware limitations, availability of training data for artificial intelligence, processing power and manufacturing capacity. Most US robot makers, with the exception of Tesla, are targeting annual production of 10,000 to 30,000 units.

Parts market, bottlenecks and industry players

J.P. Morgan identifies four primary bottlenecks that will control short-term industry growth: robot hands, actuators, the AI “brain,” and production capacity. The consultancy says component suppliers represent the largest near-term growth opportunity and expects the market for key parts such as actuators, motors and machine-vision systems to approach $30 billion by 2035.

• Notable humanoid robot makers named in the report include Tesla (Optimus), Agility Robotics (Digit), Boston Dynamics (Atlas), Figure AI (Figure robots) and Apptronik (Apollo).

The report also highlights component suppliers such as Timken, Robotis and Leader Drive as leading options in the parts supply chain. J.P. Morgan predicts that over the long term value creation will shift toward primary robot manufacturers and platform integrators.