Bitcoin Faces Tariff Pressures, But ETF Growth Offers Market Resilience

US Trade Policy Changes Spark Short-Term Volatility for Bitcoin

With the evolving landscape of U.S. trade policies, Bitcoin (BTC) is confronting new challenges that may impact its reputation as a safe haven asset. According to Jag Kooner, Head of Derivatives at Bitfinex, increased tariff risks could trigger short-term turbulence in the cryptocurrency market. Traditionally, Bitcoin’s appeal has been rooted in its capacity to hedge against inflation and global uncertainties. However, rising protectionist measures from the US may spark volatility across financial markets, including crypto.

Kooner explains that in previous market cycles, such surprises generally prompted equity sell-offs, strengthened the U.S. dollar, and softened yields. Yet, the current crypto environment is notably different.

ETF Inflows and Institutional Adoption Strengthen Crypto Fundamentals

Structural ETF Support Bolsters Bitcoin’s Defense

Unlike past market disruptions, Bitcoin is now backed by robust exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows and a growing narrative of institutional acceptance. This structural shift could insulate BTC from broader market downturns, as more investors and institutions turn to Bitcoin for security against inflationary pressures and macroeconomic swings. Should tariffs drive inflation or weaken the US dollar, these conditions could further propel demand for cryptocurrencies.

“Bitcoin stands out this cycle due to increasing ETF flows, greater institutional demand, and a stronger hedge narrative,” says Kooner. Firms viewing Bitcoin as a durable inflation hedge may spur renewed interest, particularly if the dollar trends downward.

Catalysts and Price Levels to Watch

Upcoming Regulations and All-Time Highs in Play

Beside trade risks, regulatory developments will be in sharp focus. The crypto industry is monitoring the upcoming GENIUS Act and broader legislative clarity, which could significantly impact BTC market sentiment. Sustained ETF inflows and transparent regulation are seen as key drivers that could accelerate Bitcoin’s push toward new highs.

Technical analysts note that if Bitcoin surges past its all-time high of $111,000, it may confirm a new bullish phase. On the other hand, unexpected macro shocks could see prices correcting to a support range between $105,000 and $108,000.

As institutional engagement rises and ETF offerings expand, Bitcoin is positioned to weather geopolitical headwinds better than ever before, ensuring its continuing relevance in the evolving digital asset landscape.