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Dell's latest numbers reveal a surprising split in the Windows transition: roughly half a billion PCs that could run Windows 11 remain on Windows 10, while another half billion lack the hardware to upgrade at all. Despite Microsoft ending official support, Windows 10 remains widely used in homes and businesses.
Why the upgrade to Windows 11 is moving so slowly
Imagine nearly a billion machines sitting on two different sides of a compatibility line. According to Jeffrey Clarke, Dell's chief operating officer, about 500 million devices in the market are technically eligible for Windows 11 but haven't upgraded. Another 500 million machines are around four years old and don't meet Microsoft's stricter hardware requirements.
That split reflects two forces at work: users who prefer the familiarity of Windows 10, and a large installed base of older PCs that simply can't run the newer OS. Microsoft tightened Windows 11's system requirements — TPM, secure boot, and newer CPUs — which excluded many devices made over the past decade. For millions, the only path to Windows 11 is buying a new PC.
Dell’s perspective: a sales opportunity wrapped in caution
Clarke framed the situation as both a challenge and an opening for Dell: a chance to steer customers toward new systems with Windows 11 and built-in AI features. But he also cautioned that the broader PC market isn't expected to see a dramatic rebound next year, tempering immediate sales optimism.
- ~500 million PCs are eligible for Windows 11 but remain on Windows 10.
- ~500 million PCs are too old or lack the hardware required for Windows 11.
- Dell views the split as an opportunity to sell new, AI-enabled devices — but market growth may stay limited.
Why stick with Windows 10? For many home users and enterprises the answer is simple: stability, app compatibility, and cost. Upgrading can be disruptive, and organizations often delay migrations until they’ve vetted security, management tools, and application compatibility. Home users may prefer a working setup to the promise of new features.
Last week, Pavan Dovaluri, who heads Windows at Microsoft, said "nearly a billion people rely on Windows 11" — a claim that raises questions about what "rely" means in practice, given the sizable Windows 10 audience Dell reports. In short: usage and support are not the same as rapid, forced migration.
For consumers tracking the Windows landscape, the takeaway is clear: a meaningful portion of the global PC base will stay on Windows 10 for the foreseeable future, while others are locked out and likely targets for hardware refreshes. That bifurcation will shape upgrade strategies, enterprise planning, and PC vendor roadmaps into next year.
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