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Large Bitcoin holders curb purchases as demand cools
CryptoQuant's latest on-chain analysis shows a deteriorating holding structure among major Bitcoin cohorts, a pattern that has often led to extended price weakness. The platform reports that many long-term holders are now underwater as accumulation wanes and distribution quietly increases.
Whales move from accumulation to distribution
Annual balance growth for whale wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC has flipped negative — marking the fastest contraction seen this year. Monthly balances have remained largely flat since February, indicating a clear shift from buying to mild selling pressure. Historically, such transitions among large holders have signaled vulnerability for BTC price support.
Dolphins and institutional pools slow their growth
Smaller large holders — often called "dolphins," who hold 100 to 1,000 BTC — are still expanding year-over-year, but growth has decelerated sharply. Many of these balances are dominated by exchange-traded funds and corporate treasuries. CryptoQuant notes that monthly growth across both whale and dolphin cohorts is near zero, with dolphin balances forming lower highs since September 2025.
On-chain picture: long-term supply rises amid fewer new entrants
On-chain metrics show long-term holder supply hitting a new record of 15.8 million BTC. While that sounds bullish at face value, analysts warn this configuration can be bearish when it reflects stagnant inflows of new market participants rather than fresh accumulation.
HashKey Group researcher Tim Sun told Cointelegraph that since Bitcoin pulled back from its October peak, the share of supply sitting at unrealized losses briefly approached 50% — levels not seen since the 2022 bear market bottom. Mapped against on-chain realized price, Sun suggested the absolute bottom zone could fall to roughly $40,000–$45,000.
However, Sun offered a more optimistic base-case: if geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran don’t escalate and the Federal Reserve refrains from further rate hikes, a more realistic bottom for BTC could be in the $55,000–$60,000 range.
Range-bound trading and market psychology
Market commentator Darkfost described the current BTC market as range-bound and emotionally polarized: euphoria surfaces near the top of the range, while pessimism returns as prices dip toward the bottom. This churn makes positioning difficult for traders and investors during tightening liquidity and macro uncertainty.
Around 40% of the BTC supply is at a loss within the current range-bound market structure.
Ultimately, on-chain analysts emphasize that a sustainable market recovery likely requires definitive easing in interest rates and improved liquidity conditions. Until then, weakening structural demand from whales and dolphins will remain a key variable to watch for Bitcoin’s next major move.
Key takeaways for investors
- Monitor whale and dolphin balance trends as leading indicators of structural demand.
- Watch macro factors — Fed policy and geopolitical risks — that could deepen the bear trend.
- Use on-chain metrics like realized price and unrealized losses to map potential bottom ranges for BTC.
This evolving supply backdrop and subdued accumulation among major holders underscores a cautious outlook for Bitcoin in the near term, even as long-term holder supply remains elevated.
Source: cointelegraph
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