Bitcoin $107K Buyers Hint at 2026 Bear-Market Bottom

Glassnode signals: cycle-peak buyers could flag the next bottom

On-chain analytics from Glassnode are highlighting a potentially important market signal: holders who bought Bitcoin during the 2024–2025 rally — when BTC climbed toward $107,000 — are now showing a realized-loss pattern that often precedes durable bear-market lows. That cohort, made up largely of 1–2 year hodlers, has historically dictated when the heaviest selling pressure fades and a market recovery can begin.

Why 1–2 year hodlers matter for Bitcoin price action

Realized losses for these medium-term holders rise when the market stays below their purchase prices long enough to trigger frustration and distribution. Glassnode researcher Cryptovizart noted that once the 30-day moving average of realized-loss volume for this group cools and rolls over, it has frequently signaled that the worst of the distribution phase is behind BTC. In short, tracking realized losses and their 30D-SMA gives traders and investors an early read on when net selling by cycle-peak buyers is diminishing.

Bitcoin realized losses for 1-2 year hodlers (30-day moving average).

What the recent spike and reversal could mean

Recent data showed a spike in realized losses for the 1–2 year cohort, with totals rising past the tens of millions before beginning to taper. That pattern mirrors past bear-market cycles where peak-era buyers exhausted themselves, after which the market found firmer footing. For on-chain traders and analysts, a clear rollover in this metric is worth monitoring closely as a leading indicator that bearish distribution has eased.

$69,000: the next major BTC battleground

Glassnode’s Week Onchain newsletter also points to another key level: roughly $69,000. This price zone represents the aggregated cost basis for a large share of short-term holders (STHs) and aligns with previous all-time highs from 2021. When BTC reaches that band, it should provoke a strong reaction — either a reclaim that fuels a sustained recovery or a rejection that preserves the trading range.

How speculator cost basis shapes resistance and recovery

Short-term holders are often the most likely sellers once they are back in profit. The aggregated cost basis around $69K therefore acts as psychological and technical resistance. A convincing break and hold above that level would change trader incentives and increase the likelihood of a bullish continuation. Conversely, a failed test would keep the market trapped in consolidation and extend the range-bound dynamics that have frustrated bulls.

BTC/USD chart with cost-basis levels (screenshot).

What crypto investors should watch next

Key metrics to track in the coming weeks include the 30D-SMA of realized-loss volume for 1–2 year hodlers, short-term holder cost basis, and multi-month stochastic RSI readings that have been flashing classic reversal conditions. Together, these on-chain signals provide context beyond price action alone and can help traders gauge whether selling pressure is truly abating.

As always, market participants should combine on-chain insights with macro and risk-management strategies. If Glassnode’s signals hold true, the behavior of the $107K-era buyers may provide an early roadmap to the 2026 bear-market trough — with $69,000 emerging as the next decisive price test for Bitcoin.