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Polymarket splits odds 50-50 after presidential pardon
After former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao received a presidential pardon on Oct. 23, 2025, prediction markets reacted immediately. Polymarket opened a market asking, “Will CZ return to Binance by December 31?” and, as of Oct. 24, traders have pushed the odds to roughly 50% — signaling a perfectly balanced bet on whether Zhao will resume an active role at the exchange before year-end.
CZ’s pardon from President Trump catapulted Polymarket odds to 50%
How the market moved
The Polymarket market has recorded modest liquidity so far, with trading volume around $45,974. The market originally opened on Sept. 19, 2025 — about a year after Zhao completed a four-month prison sentence — and at that time nearly 68% of bets favored a return to Binance. Sentiment fluctuated dramatically in the weeks leading up to the pardon: hours before the White House announcement, odds sank to as low as 7%, only to spike above 50% immediately after the pardon news broke.
What the pardon changes — legally and practically
President Trump’s pardon removes a major legal barrier to Zhao resuming any management role in the United States. While the White House has emphasized the pardon as an exercise of constitutional authority, regulatory constraints tied to independent monitoring and prior agreements remain relevant. Reports indicate Binance has been negotiating with the U.S. Department of Justice to conclude its court-appointed compliance monitoring early. However, monitoring requirements established by the U.S. Treasury may still need additional sign-off from either the president or the Treasury Secretary before they can be lifted.
Regulatory and governance hurdles
Even with the pardon in hand, CZ’s return as CEO would require board approval and regulatory comfort. The company’s governance structure, existing compliance frameworks, and scrutiny from U.S. authorities are all factors that could slow or block any formal reinstatement. The pardon clears criminal liabilities tied to prior convictions, but it does not automatically erase civil restrictions, monitoring obligations, or reputational concerns among institutional partners and regulators.
Would CZ actually want the job?
Publicly, Zhao has said he does not plan to return as Binance CEO. After serving his sentence, he emphasized that his plea agreement did not include a lifetime ban on managing exchanges, countering earlier rumors. In December 2024 he reaffirmed his lack of intention to resume the CEO role, although he acknowledged that a presidential pardon would remove a key obstacle.
Influence without the title
Despite stepping down, Zhao still holds a substantial ownership stake in Binance, which gives him significant influence even if he remains off the day-to-day management roster. Since his release, CZ took the helm of YZi Labs (formerly Binance Labs) in January 2025, focusing on venture investments across web3, AI, robotics, and biotech. He’s also continued philanthropic and educational work through Giggle Academy, which recently received more than $11 million in BNB donations.
This mix of ongoing investments, an influential equity position, and high-profile public projects means Zhao can shape Binance’s strategic direction without resuming the CEO role. That said, the pardon reopens the possibility that he could take on a formal management or advisory position — provided Binance’s board and relevant regulators permit it.
What the market and the industry are watching next
Polymarket’s 50% estimate effectively reflects uncertainty: traders see both a credible path for CZ’s return and plausible obstacles that could prevent it. The market will stay open until Dec. 31, 2025, giving participants time to react to any corporate announcements, regulatory updates, or shifts in Binance’s operational posture.
Key triggers that could move the odds in either direction include:
- A formal statement from Binance’s board about CZ’s role or a change in executive leadership.
- Resolution or modification of U.S. monitoring agreements with DOJ/Treasury.
- Public moves by Zhao indicating a direct intent to rejoin operational leadership.
What a return would mean for Binance and the U.S. crypto market
If Zhao returns to a hands-on leadership role, it could accelerate Binance’s re-entry into the U.S. market and affect confidence among retail and institutional participants. Conversely, regulators and partners may view his return as a potential red flag, prompting closer scrutiny. For crypto markets and industry watchers, the question of CZ’s return is as much about governance and regulatory optics as it is about leadership competency.
Bottom line
The presidential pardon significantly altered the legal landscape for Changpeng Zhao, and prediction markets have roughly split the probability of his return to Binance before the end of 2025. While CZ publicly stated in 2024 that he did not intend to resume the CEO role, his remaining equity stake, the new role at YZi Labs, and active investments in web3 and education keep the door open for a strategic comeback. Traders and industry stakeholders will be monitoring corporate announcements and regulatory developments closely between now and Dec. 31.
Source: crypto
Comments
coinpilot
Is this even true? Pardon fixes criminal charges but not monitoring, civil bans or partners' trust. Markets love drama not facts, not convinced.
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