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Cardano price risks a slide toward $0.30 amid weakening fundamentals
Cardano (ADA) has been under sustained selling pressure for the fourth consecutive week. Technical indicators and on-chain metrics point to continued downside in the short term, with the token trading well below key moving averages and several support bands already breached. Traders and investors should watch systemic measures such as TVL, active addresses and derivatives positioning to assess the risk of an extended downturn.
On-chain metrics show fading network activity
Total value locked (TVL) on Cardano has tumbled from $904.91 million in December last year to approximately $251 million at the time of writing, signaling that capital is leaving the ecosystem. Weekly DeFi revenue on the network has dropped roughly 65% from October levels, and active addresses this week are down nearly 92% compared with December of last year. Declining app revenue and fewer users typically reduce protocol demand and can push investors toward other chains with stronger usage metrics.
Derivatives and market cap contraction
Derivatives traders have also reduced exposure: Cardano futures open interest sits near $710 million, a sharp fall from $1.95 billion in mid-September according to CoinGlass. ADA’s market capitalization has shrunk to about $15.4 billion from $40.8 billion recorded in January, consistent with a nearly 63% decline from this year’s peak.
Technical analysis: key levels, moving averages and bearish signals
On the daily chart, ADA has slipped below the $0.51–$0.545 support band that had previously acted as a strong consolidation floor. Losing this range increases the probability of further selling pressure. At press time, the token was trading around $0.42 and sits conspicuously below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which recently formed a death cross — a technical event often interpreted by traders as a confirmation of a bearish trend.
Cardano price has lost a key support zone during its downtrend this month — Nov. 25
If the current momentum persists, ADA could test $0.30 next, a level that served as a defensive floor during several sell-offs in 2024. That target is roughly 28% below the prevailing price of $0.42 and would represent a significant retracement from recent ranges.
Potential for a short-term recovery
A bullish reversal scenario would require ADA to reclaim the $0.54 area — roughly the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the recent move — and push back above the 50-day moving average. A decisive breakout above these levels could open the door for a short-term recovery, but given the weak on-chain fundamentals and reduced derivatives interest, any rally may need robust volume and renewed network activity to sustain gains.
What traders should monitor
- Total value locked (TVL) and weekly DeFi revenue for signs of returning capital.
- Active addresses and app activity as gauges of user engagement.
- Futures open interest and funding rates to detect shifts in institutional sentiment.
- Key technical zones: $0.51–$0.545 (recent support), $0.54 (near-term resistance), and $0.30 (critical lower floor).
In summary, Cardano faces elevated downside risk in the near term as both technical charts and on-chain indicators flash warning signs. Traders should manage risk and follow network metrics closely; a rebound is possible but would need stronger demand and improving fundamentals to negate the current bearish bias.
Source: crypto
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