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Bitcoin market overview: sellers return, price slips under $63K
Bitcoin sellers resumed activity on Tuesday, pushing BTC down roughly 4% in 24 hours to an intraday low near $62,700. Panic selling among short-term holders, together with a weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching record lows, suggests the market may be entering a full capitulation phase. Traders and investors are watching on-chain indicators and sentiment metrics for signs of a cyclical bottom in this volatile crypto market.
Key takeaways
- Short-term holder capitulation pushed Bitcoin below $63,000.
- Weekly RSI is nearing historic lows, which has previously coincided with long-term bottoms.
On-chain metrics from CryptoQuant and Glassnode point to an excess loss-realization regime.
BTC/USD hourly chart.
Short-term holders driving renewed capitulation
On-chain metrics show short-term holders are once again the primary sellers. The Short-Term Holder SOPR (STH-SOPR) — which indicates whether recent sellers are realizing profit or loss — fell below 1 shortly after the U.S. announced a 15% global tariff last weekend. With the STH-SOPR around 0.95, CryptoQuant analysts describe this move as “renewed short-term loss realization,” signaling that traders with brief holding periods are dumping coins amid heightened macro uncertainty rather than long-term holders offloading strategically.
Bitcoin: Short-term holder SOPR.
Glassnode’s data supports this narrative. The seven-day EMA of short-term holder net realized losses has eased from peak levels but remains significant, cooling from as high as $1.24 billion per day on Feb. 6 to around $500 million per day. That decline indicates the intensity of loss-taking has moderated, but the broader regime still points to pressure as participants in base-formation continue to capitulate.
Bitcoin entity adjusted STH Net realized profit/loss.
Realized profit/loss and regime shift
Another important on-chain signal, the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio, has dropped below 1. Glassnode interprets this as confirmation of a full transition into an "excess loss-realization" regime — a period where realized losses dominate realized gains. That shift typically accompanies deep drawdowns and can mark the late stages of a capitulation cycle before recovery.
Bitcoin: Realized profit/loss ratio.
Why this matters for traders and investors
When realized loss metrics and SOPR indicate mass selling by short-term holders, it often reflects forced liquidations, stop-loss cascades, and emotion-driven exits. For long-term investors and institutional players, these conditions can create accumulation windows, but the timing of a durable bottom remains uncertain.
RSI signals — could the bottom be forming?
The weekly RSI for Bitcoin has reached deeply oversold territory, printing levels near 25.7 — the lowest since prior capitulation events that preceded stronger recoveries. Historically, such extreme RSI readings have coincided with short-term weakness followed by multi-month rebounds as selling exhaustion sets in.
BTC/USD weekly RSI.
Analysts like Nic Puckrin note the weekly RSI is "the most oversold it has ever been," warning that while further downside is possible, the conditions for a macro bottom may be coalescing. Meanwhile, sentiment gauges such as the Fear & Greed Index are at historic lows and fewer market participants expect new all-time highs — classic contrarian signals that can precede the start of a longer bullish cycle.
Bottom line
On-chain indicators and technicals point to intensified capitulation led by short-term holders, with SOPR and realized-loss metrics confirming a regime dominated by loss realization. The deeply oversold weekly RSI suggests that although more volatility is likely, a long-term bottom could be approaching. Traders should weigh macro factors, funding rates, and liquidity conditions carefully before positioning, while long-term investors may use realized-loss regimes as disciplined accumulation opportunities within a diversified crypto strategy.
Source: cointelegraph
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