Fidelity Forecast: Bitcoin Nears Price Bottom - Repeat?

Fidelity Analysts See Bitcoin Approaching a Price Floor

After a persistent downtrend since last October, Fidelity's research team now suggests Bitcoin (BTC) may be approaching a price bottom. Senior analyst Zack Wainwright highlights that long-term holder supply is nearing a record close to 15 million BTC, while more than 40% of that supply is currently underwater — a pattern historically associated with market bottoms.

Supply in Loss and Historical Comparison

Fidelity points to the 30-day average of supply in loss, which has surged up to 50% as BTC slid below $63,000. A similar spike in supply in loss occurred in 2022, when Bitcoin hit lows around $16,000. These on-chain signals — supply in loss and long-term holder accumulation — are key crypto metrics used to identify potential floors in the Bitcoin market.

Macro and Geopolitical Risks Remain

Despite encouraging on-chain signs, analysts warn that macroeconomic pressures and geopolitical uncertainty could constrain risk appetite across crypto markets. Elevated interest rates, inflation dynamics, and global tensions could delay a decisive recovery or increase volatility for Bitcoin and other digital assets.

Weak Institutional Inflows and Fund Flows

Liquidity into Bitcoin investment funds remains subdued. Glassnode data shows major institutional players, including BlackRock and Fidelity, have reduced their BTC holdings in recent months and fund trading volumes have declined. Lower institutional demand could limit near-term upside even if on-chain indicators suggest a floor is forming.

Near-Term Price Outlook

Analysts expect Bitcoin to trade in a neutral range around $55,000 to $70,000 through July, with volatility likely until clearer macro fundamentals or renewed institutional inflows emerge. Traders and investors should monitor on-chain metrics, fund flows, and macro headlines when assessing BTC risk and positioning.