Bitcoin Tests $63K as ETF Outflows Reach $265M in August

Bitcoin hovers near $63,000 as ETF withdrawals weigh

Bitcoin traded around $63,000 on Aug. 1 amid weakening momentum, fresh US spot ETF outflows and ongoing regulatory uncertainty that have kept many buyers sidelined. After peaking near $66,900 in July, the market has retraced most of its recent gains and is now testing the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $63,150 — a critical pivot for near-term direction.

Bitcoin price traded at approximately $63,082 at the time of writing after briefly dipping below $63,000 during the latest selloff. The retreat has erased most of the rebound from the July 21 high near $66,900, leaving traders watching key technical supports and liquidity clusters.

Technical snapshot — daily chart and key levels

The daily chart places Bitcoin directly beneath the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement measured from the May peak of $82,492 to the June low of $57,884. A decisive daily close below $63,150 would signal that buyers could not hold the retracement level, opening the door to a retest of the $62,000 area and, if selling accelerates, the psychological $60,000 support.

Bitcoin price daily chart — Aug. 1

Holding the current zone would allow for another consolidation phase, but relief for bulls will likely require a recovery above $64,000 to relieve short-term pressure.

Momentum readings favor sellers

Momentum indicators on both daily and 4-hour timeframes have turned bearish. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to 45.12 with its moving average near 51.99, a level that suggests room for further downside before traditional dip-buying conditions emerge. Meanwhile, the daily MACD reflected a bearish crossover: the MACD line dipped below the signal line and the histogram moved into negative territory, signaling weakening bullish momentum.

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin sits below the Bollinger Band midpoint around $63,886 and is trading close to the lower band at $62,489. The upper band, near $65,284, represents the first major volatility-based resistance on any short-term recovery attempt.

Bitcoin price 4-hour chart — Aug. 1 

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) on the 4-hour timeframe has fallen to −0.22, indicating capital outflows and reduced conviction among short-term buyers. With money flow negative near support, any bounce may struggle to gain traction until buying volume returns.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs record $265M net outflows

Institutional flows added further pressure on price: US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered a combined net outflow of roughly $265 million on July 31, according to SoSoValue data. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust led withdrawals with about $123 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC posted approximately $54.8 million in net outflows.

The daily outflow ended a short inflow streak and underscored fragile institutional demand heading into August. Total assets under management for US spot Bitcoin ETFs stood near $76.29 billion, representing roughly 6.04% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization.

Traders are also watching developments in Washington around the so-called CLARITY Act and related market structure negotiations. The White House has been expected to review a bipartisan ethics proposal as lawmakers attempt to secure votes before the Senate recess. Prediction markets showed limited confidence that the bill would pass quickly, adding to the uncertain regulatory backdrop.

Liquidity map highlights $62K and $65K as critical zones

An analysis of leveraged positions and liquidation clusters shows significant concentrations of orders around both downside and upside targets. The nearest downside liquidity cluster is concentrated near $62,000 — a level that could attract a sweep of stop-losses and forced liquidations if Bitcoin breaks below the 4-hour lower Bollinger Band at $62,489.

A minor liquidity band near $63,300 could act as an immediate target if a modest rebound forms. Above that, the strongest short-liquidation zones extend from about $65,000 to $66,000, which could amplify upside moves through short squeezes if buyers reclaim the upper Bollinger area.

Bitcoin liquidation heatmap

These liquidation areas often draw price as exchanges execute leveraged positions, but they do not guarantee direction — Bitcoin can sweep liquidity on either side before finding a sustained trend, particularly while Chaikin money flow and other volume-based indicators remain negative.

Potential paths: recovery vs. renewed decline

For a credible short-term recovery, Bitcoin must first reclaim the 4-hour Bollinger midpoint near $63,886. Clearing $64,000 would open a path toward $65,000 and the upper Bollinger Band around $65,284. If buyers sustain momentum above that band, the market could force short-liquidations and extend a retest toward $65,800–$66,000.

A meaningful trend reversal would require a break above the July high near $66,900 and the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $67,284. Until those levels are convincingly reclaimed, relief rallies are vulnerable to failure.

Conversely, a sustained breakdown below $62,000 would significantly weaken the outlook and expose $60,000 and the June low close to $57,884.

Sentiment, signals and what to watch

Analyst signals also warn of potential exhaustion: a TD Sequential sell signal appeared on Bitcoin’s three-day chart, a pattern some traders use to anticipate trend reversals or short-term weakness. However, the TD Sequential is not a standalone confirmation — its warning must be read alongside price action, ETF flows and regulatory developments.

Key items for traders and investors to monitor in the coming sessions:

• Net flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs and large institutional positioning
• Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the 4-hour Bollinger midpoint and $64,000
• Chaikin Money Flow and volume indicators for signs of renewed buying
• Liquidity sweeps around $62,000 and potential short-liquidation zones at $65,000–$66,000
• Progress or setbacks in CLARITY Act negotiations and broader regulatory signals

As markets digest ETF outflows and await clearer regulatory outcomes, Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory will likely hinge on whether buyers step in at the $63,150 Fibonacci band or whether sellers force a deeper retracement toward $62,000 and below. Traders should weigh liquidity risks, leverage concentrations and momentum indicators when sizing positions and planning entries.