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Ethena has plunged sharply in recent weeks, shedding nearly 40% over a two‑week stretch and falling roughly 20% in the past seven days. The market is now watching closely as on‑chain token unlocks and whale sell‑offs weigh on liquidity and price, while technical indicators point to a looming bearish setup: a daily death cross.
Recent price action and fundamentals
At the time of writing, Ethena trades around $0.31 after slipping from a market cap peak of $3.7 billion to roughly $2.3 billion. The token saw a brief uptick on Nov. 6 following a Robinhood listing announcement, but the rally was short‑lived as a large token unlock hit the market the previous day.
Token distribution matters: a 171.88 million token unlock — roughly $54.88 million — took place just before the Robinhood news, following an earlier $15.7 million unlock on Nov. 2. These scheduled unlocks increase circulating supply, reduce scarcity, and tend to pressure altcoin prices when market demand is muted. Currently, about 7.42 billion Ethena tokens are circulating, with around 70% still held by early investors and team wallets; that concentration raises the probability of further profit‑taking.
On‑chain snapshot
Nansen data shows significant whale activity. The total Ethena balance held by large addresses fell from 65.24 million on Oct. 31 to 43.06 million at press time, suggesting meaningful sell pressure from whales. Historically, whale sell‑offs can trigger retail panic selling and amplify downward momentum across the order book.
Technical picture: descending channel and death cross
Technically, Ethena has been trading within a descending parallel channel since early September, a pattern that reflects persistent bearish momentum. Momentum indicators and moving averages reinforce the negative bias: the Supertrend has flipped to red, and the 50‑day simple moving average (SMA) looks poised to cross below the 200‑day SMA, which would form a classical death cross on the daily chart.
Ethena price is approaching a death cross on the daily chart — Nov. 7
Momentum and support levels
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 32, approaching oversold territory. While this implies a potential short‑term bounce, the broader bias remains bearish so long as price trades inside the descending channel. Analysts suggest downside risk toward $0.197 — about 36% below current levels — a zone last seen in September 2024.
Ethena Supertrend and RSI chart — Nov. 7
Scenarios to watch
Bear case: Continued selling from whales and ongoing unlock schedules could push Ethena toward the $0.197 support target, especially if the death cross completes and broader crypto market sentiment cools. In such a scenario, retail traders may capitulate, deepening the sell‑off.
Bull case: A decisive break above the 200‑day SMA at about $0.47 — which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the recent high — would signal a rejection of the bearish setup and could trigger short covering and renewed buying interest. Until that level is reclaimed and price exits the descending channel, traders should remain cautious.
What traders should consider
Risk management is essential: keep position sizes measured, monitor on‑chain flows for large wallet movements, and watch scheduled unlocks that can increase selling pressure. Use technical cues like the death cross confirmation, Supertrend flips, and RSI divergences to time entries or exits. As always, diversify and avoid over‑leveraging in a volatile altcoin environment.
Source: crypto
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