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Standard Chartered confirms $2 trillion stablecoin outlook despite T-bill revision
Standard Chartered reaffirmed its forecast that the stablecoin market will expand to $2 trillion by late 2028, even as it trimmed expectations for how much demand stablecoins will place on short-term US Treasury bills. The bank’s latest research keeps a bullish long-term view on stablecoin adoption while recalibrating projected reserve flows into T-bills.
Analysts lower T-bill demand estimate but remain optimistic
In a Monday report shared with Cointelegraph, analysts Geoffrey Kendrick and US rates strategist John Davies said stablecoins such as Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC could materially increase demand for Treasury bills as issuers and custodians hold T-bills as reserves. Earlier projections pointed toward very large T-bill absorption, but Standard Chartered has reduced its fresh T-bill demand estimate tied to stablecoins to $800 billion–$1 trillion by late 2028, down from a previous $1.6 trillion projection made in April 2025.
Why the downgrade matters
The revision reflects softer near-term growth in the US dollar stablecoin market cap — which has hovered around $300 billion during recent market weakness — and a reassessment of reserve management dynamics. Despite these cyclical headwinds, the bank attributes the medium-term growth case to regulatory clarity, pointing to the passage of the US GENIUS Act in 2025 as a structural catalyst for institutional stablecoin demand and wider crypto adoption.
Treasury issuance and market liquidity implications
Standard Chartered’s team noted that stablecoin-driven reserve needs could still push overall T-bill demand materially higher; one scenario discussed in the report suggested aggregate T-bill demand could reach approximately $2.2 trillion by 2028 if stablecoin reserve practices and institutional adoption accelerate. The analysts also flagged that the US Treasury might view growing private-sector demand as a rationale to issue additional T-bills. They cited Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments suggesting that the GENIUS Act could become “an important feature of financing the US government.”
Other market forecast updates
Alongside the stablecoin and T-bill analysis, Standard Chartered reiterated a long-term bullish stance on digital assets, continuing to model a $2 trillion stablecoin market cap by end-2028. The bank has previously projected a very optimistic Bitcoin thesis over the same timeframe but recently lowered its 2026 BTC target from $150,000 to $100,000 and noted a potential downside to around $50,000 before a possible recovery. These adjustments reflect ongoing volatility in crypto market cap, liquidity, and macro-driven flows into safe-haven short-term Treasuries.
What traders and institutions should watch
Market participants should monitor stablecoin market cap trends, regulatory developments such as stablecoin frameworks and implementation of the GENIUS Act, and Treasury issuance plans. Changes in Federal Reserve reserve management purchases and the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcements could also influence T-bill scarcity and yield dynamics, which in turn affect stablecoin reserve strategies and liquidity management across exchanges and custodial platforms.
Source: cointelegraph
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