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Ethereum Tests Critical Support as Large Holders Shift Positions
Ethereum slipped roughly 5% toward the $1,900 level this week as heavy selling from large holders and persistent spot ETF outflows weighed on market sentiment. Despite a bullish RSI divergence on the 12-hour chart hinting at a possible recovery, concentrated whale activity and fund withdrawals have kept short-term momentum to the downside.
Current price setup and key levels
ETH is trading near $1.9k, with immediate support clustered between $1.8k and $1.85k. Analysts warn that a daily close beneath that zone would likely invalidate the 12-hour bullish divergence and open the door to deeper declines toward $1.7k–$1.6k. Conversely, holding the $1.8k area and reclaiming recent consolidation highs would strengthen the case for a trend reversal and renewed upside toward the next resistance bands.
Technical picture: bullish divergence vs. price pressure
On the 12-hour timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low even as price printed a lower low over the past month—a classic bullish divergence that often precedes meaningful reversals. However, technical signals are being counterbalanced by on-chain events and fund flows, which have injected selling pressure into the market.
On-chain flows and whale behavior
Blockchain analytics show a mixed set of on-chain indicators. New wallet inflows and elevated whale deposits into selected addresses suggest continued interest among some market participants, while large, concentrated transfers to exchanges point to potential selling. Data revealed that a previously dormant whale moved ETH to an exchange after years of inactivity, a behavior commonly associated with liquidation intent. Another major address executed a sizeable sale within a short window, compounding downward pressure.
Notably, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin reduced holdings in recent days, a trade that has been flagged by on-chain watchers and added to market nervousness.
Spot ETF flows and institutional demand
Spot ETH exchange-traded funds have reported multiweek net outflows in recent sessions. Single-day redemptions approaching $40m–$50m were recorded, indicating that capital is exiting regulated products that track Ethereum. Those outflows have reduced one clear channel of institutional demand and contributed to the weaker near-term price action.
BitMine increases stake amid turbulent market
In contrast to the broader sell-side activity, BitMine Immersion Technologies expanded its Ethereum holdings significantly. Company disclosures indicate BitMine now holds about 4.42 million ETH, roughly 3.66% of the circulating supply. Most of that position is staked and generates yield for the firm’s treasury, and the company completed a notable purchase last week in line with its stated acquisition targets.
BitMine’s accumulation introduces a bullish element to the on-chain narrative: a single corporate buyer capturing a meaningful share of available supply can tighten liquidity and support price if selling pressure subsides. Yet, the market impact depends on whether BitMine’s position remains long-term and staked versus being redeployed or sold in parts.
Scenarios to watch
- Bear case: Continued large-holder selling, persistent ETF redemptions, and weak spot-buying interest drive a daily close below $1.8k. That outcome would likely push ETH toward $1.7k–$1.6k as capitulation accelerates.
- Bull case: The $1.8k–$1.85k support holds, buyers step in and recent consolidation highs are reclaimed, validating the 12-hour RSI divergence and opening a path back to higher resistance zones.
Traders and investors should track on-chain wallet flows, exchange inflows/outflows, and ETF fund flow reports for early signs of either scenario. Staking dynamics and large corporate holders like BitMine will remain important variables for supply-side liquidity.
What this means for traders and long-term holders
Short-term traders may find opportunities around the identified support and resistance levels with tight risk controls, given the mixed technical and on-chain signals. Long-term holders should monitor macro liquidity trends, institutional demand via ETFs, and whale behavior—particularly any reduction in staked balances that could increase circulating supply.
Overall, Ethereum’s fate in the near term hinges on whether buyers can absorb the selling pressure and whether ETF flows stabilize. For now, the market is watching the $1.8k support zone closely as the pivot that will determine the next directional move for ETH.
Source: crypto
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