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HYPE faces a pivotal support test after a sharp pullback
Hyperliquid's HYPE token has dropped roughly 22% from its $75 all-time high, placing this year’s rally under pressure as market participation wanes across derivatives. The token’s retreat toward the $50-$54 zone marks the first major trend test since January and will likely determine if HYPE can resume its uptrend above $60.
Spot selling eases, but accumulation is limited
HYPE slipped under $60 after failing to reclaim resistance near $76, pushing the price closer to the 50-day exponential moving average (50 EMA) — a level that has supported the rally since March. The current pullback mirrors HYPE’s consolidation in May 2025, when the token reached a high near $40 before entering a multi-week pause that cooled momentum without triggering a bearish daily breakout.
HYPE price comparison, July 2026 and May 2025.
On-chain indicators show a mixed picture. The relative strength index (RSI) has rolled over from overbought territory but remains above classic reversal thresholds, suggesting momentum has cooled rather than reversed decisively. Aggregated spot cumulative volume delta (CVD), which tracks net buying and selling in spot markets, has improved from its correction lows — signaling that spot selling pressure is easing. Still, spot CVD remains deeply negative at nearly $95 million, indicating historic net selling throughout the recent decline.
HYPE price, open interest, spot and futures CVD, funding rate.
The evidence points to buyers beginning to absorb supply around current prices, but demand has been modest compared with the roughly $110 million in spot selling recorded during the drop from $76 in early June. In short: selling pressure is reducing, yet aggressive accumulation is not yet visible.
Derivatives engagement declines, open interest contracts
Leverage-driven activity has thinned. Open interest has fallen from $2.2 billion to about $1.73 billion as traders appear to trim exposure instead of establishing fresh long positions. Derivatives cumulative volume delta has also trended lower, standing near negative $389 million, down from negative $400 million in early June. Funding rates and futures flows are consistent with a market that’s cooling rather than flipping into a clear buying regime.
$50–$54: The critical support band
The $50-$54 region is the most relevant support cluster now. It aligns with the rising 50-day EMA and an unfilled daily fair-value gap near $49, creating layered technical support. Holding this zone would preserve HYPE’s sequence of higher highs and higher lows established since January and keep the pullback in the context of an ongoing uptrend.
HYPE/USDT, one-day chart.
A decisive daily close below roughly $53 would represent the first meaningful bearish shift on the daily chart this year. If that occurs, the 100-day EMA near $51.6 becomes a nearer-term defensive level, followed by the lower edge of the fair-value gap around $49. Beneath those, the next material support sits near $38.
What to watch next: spot flows vs. leveraged markets
The primary signal to monitor is the divergence between improving spot flows and dwindling participation in leveraged derivatives. If spot demand strengthens around $50-$54 — evidenced by improving spot CVD and higher buy-side volumes — the correction could be nearing exhaustion and set the stage for a renewed push above $60. Conversely, if open interest and derivatives delta continue to slide while spot buyers remain thin, the risk of a deeper retracement increases.
Market voices are already weighing in on accumulation levels. Crypto trader Altcoin Sherpa said, "HYPE, I think anywhere in the 55-64 area is a pretty good place to accumulate this one. I think it goes to $100 later this year personally and is still the best altcoin...but it's going to also depend a lot on bitcoin IMO."
Bottom line for traders and investors
For traders, watch the $50-$54 zone, spot CVD, and open interest for conclusive signs of demand returning. For longer-term investors, maintaining a measured accumulation plan keyed to the $55-$64 area — while monitoring Bitcoin’s broader market direction — could be a prudent approach. In either case, the balance between spot buying and shrinking derivatives participation will likely dictate whether HYPE resumes its upward trajectory or extends its correction.
Source: cointelegraph
Comments
coinpilot
Not sure I buy the "buyers absorbing supply" angle. Spot CVD still deep negative, if that keeps up this might crack 53... anyone else think Sherpa's call is optimistic?
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