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Hyperliquid price under pressure as large HYPE unlock looms
Hyperliquid (HYPE) remains inside a clearly bearish channel as markets prepare for a significant token unlock on Jan. 6. The token has shown short-term bounce attempts, but broader momentum still favors sellers. Traders and investors are watching on-chain supply dynamics, futures activity, and ongoing protocol burns to gauge whether HYPE can stabilize or will resume its decline.
Market snapshot
At press time HYPE was trading around $26.45, up roughly 4% over 24 hours but still far from its September peak near $59 — about a 55% decline from that all-time high. Over the last seven days the token traded in a roughly $24.03–$27.18 range, and it remains down approximately 15% over the past month. These moves underline continued volatility in the token’s price action.
Spot trading activity picked up meaningfully: 24-hour spot volume climbed about 52% to near $236 million. Derivatives markets also show increased engagement: CoinGlass data points to a 28% rise in futures volume to roughly $1.21 billion, while open interest moved up around 2.1% to $1.43 billion. That combination suggests new positions are being added rather than a wholesale exit, indicating cautious, exploratory flows rather than strong conviction in a trend reversal.
Derivatives and on-chain signals
Rising futures volume and marginally higher open interest can precede decisive moves, but in HYPE’s case the picture is one of tentative positioning. For crypto traders focused on derivatives markets, the mix of volume growth and muted open-interest change implies participants are testing risk rather than committing to a directional trade. On-chain supply metrics and scheduled vesting events are adding an extra layer of uncertainty.
Major token unlock could add selling pressure
A prominent catalyst looming for the HYPE market is a scheduled unlock of about 12.46 million tokens on Jan. 6. According to Tokenomist figures, that release equals 3.61% of currently released supply and is worth approximately $328 million at current prices. So far about 38.3% of the total token cap has been distributed — 345.08 million HYPE out of a maximum 962.05 million.
Large, well-publicized unlocks often lead to short-term selling as recipients take profits or rebalance positions. Given HYPE is trading inside a wider downtrend, the added supply could cap near-term rallies and make it harder for buyers to absorb selling pressure around the unlock window. That said, the unlocked tranche is relatively small versus daily trading turnover, and the community has had ample notice — factors that sometimes mitigate sharp sell-offs.
Historically, transparent vesting schedules produce selling in advance of the release followed by stabilization if demand holds. Recent sideways price action in HYPE suggests some of that redistribution may already be occurring, but markets can still react depending on how recipients decide to use newly unlocked tokens.
Burn mechanics and supply support
Hyperliquid’s tokenomics include ongoing buybacks and burns funded by protocol revenue, which act as a counterweight to inflationary unlocks. The protocol executed a significant one-time burn of 37.5 million HYPE in late December — an event the platform valued at roughly $912 million. Beyond that, steady buybacks are estimated to create about $2 million of daily buy-side pressure by removing tokens from circulation.
These burns help reduce net issuance and can improve the supply-demand balance over time, but they may not fully neutralize the immediate impact of scheduled token releases if recipients opt to sell.
Hyperliquid daily chart
Technical outlook and key levels
Technically, HYPE is still forming lower highs and lower lows, consistent with a downtrending pattern. Price remains beneath major medium- and long-term moving averages which slope downward and act as resistance. Bollinger Bands have tightened following an extended sell-off, signaling reduced volatility that often precedes a larger directional move. With the token trading in the lower half of its range, the near-term bias stays cautious.
The relative strength index (RSI) has recovered from oversold territory but sits near the neutral 50 mark, suggesting bearish momentum has eased somewhat without a clear bullish flip. For traders seeking a constructive scenario, a decisive break above the upper boundary of the current descending channel — and reclaiming the $29–$30 region on sustained volume — would be needed to shift sentiment. Conversely, failure to hold the $24–$25 support band, particularly through the Jan. 6 unlock, would open the door to a further leg lower.
What traders should watch
- Jan. 6 unlock flow and any wallet movements tied to recipient addresses.
- Changes in futures open interest and liquidations data to detect leverage unwinds.
- Ongoing burn announcements and buyback cadence from Hyperliquid.
- Price reaction around $24–$25 support and the critical $29–$30 recovery zone.
In sum, HYPE faces competing forces: scheduled supply increases from vesting, offset by active burns and increasing trading engagement. Short-term risk leans toward sellers, but clear technical confirmation is needed before declaring a sustained trend change. Traders should monitor unlock-related flows and derivatives activity closely to time entries and risk management in an environment where tokenomics remain a key driver of price behavior.
Source: crypto
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