Kalshi Traders Predict Bitcoin Rally to $68K in August

Kalshi Contracts Signal Bullish Sentiment for Bitcoin

As Bitcoin enters August, trader positions on the prediction market Kalshi point to growing optimism about BTC's near-term trajectory. Contracts on the platform indicate that a portion of participants assign a meaningful probability to Bitcoin reaching $68,000 this month. The open interest behind that outcome has surpassed $1 million, underscoring market attention on the potential upside for BTC price action.

Current Price Levels and Key Technical Zones

Bitcoin is trading around $64,900–$65,000 at the time of reporting, with the $65,000 level serving as an important short-term resistance. A decisive break and daily close above this zone could clear the path toward intermediate targets at $65,500 and $66,000, and then toward $66,500. On the downside, failure to hold support near $64,000 would open the way to $63,000 and $62,500 levels.

Technical Indicators

Four-hour technicals currently favor buyers: the RSI is near 61.55 and the MACD sits above its signal line. These momentum signals suggest that short-term buying pressure remains intact, supporting the possibility of further gains if volume confirms the move.

Institutional Flows and ETF Impact

Institutional capital has also contributed to the improved market backdrop. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a net inflow of $98.85 million on August 7, marking the fifth consecutive session of positive flows. Spot Ethereum ETFs absorbed about $49.6 million the same day, underscoring broader demand for crypto ETFs and institutional exposure to digital assets.

Outlook and Caveats

Kalshi's $68,000 target should be read as a market probability, not a guaranteed outcome. The continuation of this bullish scenario depends on two critical factors: sustaining support at $64,000 and producing a convincing breakout above $65,000. Traders and investors should monitor price action, volume, and technical indicators closely as BTC navigates these pivotal levels.