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Maelstrom warns of major HYPE token unlocks and supply pressure
Maelstrom, the family office fund founded by BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes, has flagged a potentially destabilizing vesting schedule for Hyperliquid’s native HYPE token. According to Maelstrom’s research, a 24‑month vesting program is set to begin Nov. 29, releasing roughly $11.9 billion worth of HYPE over two years. That schedule could translate into about $500 million of token unlocks each month — a level of supply that may outpace current demand and buyback mechanisms.
Maelstrom researcher Lukas Ruppert estimates that existing buyback activity could absorb only about 17% of the monthly release, leaving an estimated $410 million in potential monthly overhang. Ruppert highlighted the psychological and financial incentives for team members as tokens begin to vest, writing that developers who have worked for years will see life‑changing sums one click away.
How the vesting schedule could impact HYPE price stability
The scale and cadence of token unlocks matter in crypto markets. A concentrated, predictable monthly release can create recurring selling pressure as beneficiaries convert tokens to fiat or other assets. With $11.9B scheduled across 24 months, traders and market makers will closely monitor velocity, liquidity depth, and whether Hyperliquid scales buybacks or other stabilization tools.
Maelstrom’s note warns that even growing digital asset treasuries (DATs) and corporate HYPE allocations are relatively small compared with the impending unlocks. The fund pointed to recent initiatives that aim to build treasury demand for HYPE but said they may be insufficient to fully offset the monthly supply increases.
Corporate treasuries and the Sonnet example
One example cited by observers is Nasdaq‑listed Sonnet BioTherapeutics, which partnered with a new entity called Rorschach to deploy a HYPE treasury strategy. That plan reportedly includes roughly $583 million in HYPE tokens plus over $305 million in cash to buy additional HYPE. While notable, Maelstrom suggests this remains a drop in the bucket relative to the full unlock schedule.
The $305 million in cash will also be used to acquire more HYPE tokens, which still pales in comparison to the token’s future unlocks
Market reaction, token performance, and notable sales
The announcement and related activity have coincided with price volatility. The HYPE token reached a new intraday peak near $59.29 in the days around Aster’s token launch and growing interest in derivatives DEX competition.
Separately, Arthur Hayes reportedly sold his personal HYPE holdings earlier in the month. Cointelegraph reported that Hayes used proceeds to pay the deposit on a new Ferrari, a move covered alongside his continued bullish long‑term outlook: Hayes has previously suggested HYPE could appreciate substantially by 2028 under certain macro scenarios.
Rising competition from Aster and broader market context
Competition in decentralized derivatives and perpetual exchanges is intensifying. Aster, a decentralized perpetuals exchange linked to Binance co‑founder Changpeng Zhao, briefly crossed $2 billion in TVL around its ASTER token launch. Maelstrom noted that aggressive competitor moves ahead of Hyperliquid’s unlock schedule could be strategic; one researcher commented, "Business is war," suggesting rivals may time product and token launches to exploit windows of vulnerability.
For investors and token holders, the near‑term outlook hinges on how Hyperliquid manages liquidity and buybacks, how many beneficiaries choose to sell upon vesting, and whether new demand sources — corporate treasuries, retail buyers, or protocol fee growth — can meaningfully absorb increased supply. Traders should also factor in macro dynamics and broader crypto market liquidity when assessing HYPE’s risk profile.
What to watch
- Monthly unlock volumes and actual sell pressure versus theoretical supply.
- Hyperliquid’s announcements on buybacks, staking, or other mechanisms to reduce circulating supply.
- New treasury inflows from institutions and projects such as Sonnet/Rorschach.
- Competitive moves from DEX rivals like Aster and changes in TVL or token utility.
As always in crypto markets, predictable events like vesting schedules can be priced in well ahead of time — or they can trigger sudden volatility if liquidity is thinner than expected. Market participants should monitor on‑chain flows, exchange order books, and official Hyperliquid disclosures as the Nov. 29 unlock date approaches.
Source: cointelegraph
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