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Can ETH overtake BTC in the next bull cycle?
Ethereum (ETH) remains one of the most-discussed assets in crypto markets. At the time of writing, ETH sits near $3,948, firmly in second place by market capitalization but showing resilient intra-year momentum. The idea of a “flippening” — where Ethereum surpasses Bitcoin (BTC) in market cap — continues to spark debate among traders, investors, and institutional observers.
Current ETH price scenario
ETH price is currently trading around $3,948, stable above short-term support near $3,900 and ranging between $3,800 and $4,300. Many traders are awaiting a decisive breakout before committing to fresh long positions. Recent macro headlines and U.S. CPI releases have kept volatility elevated, while derivatives markets show a mild pullback in bullish funding.
1D price chart for Ethereum
ETF inflows into crypto products have cooled off compared to earlier months, and ETH trading volumes have moderated. Nevertheless, Ethereum has outperformed a broad swath of altcoins, buoyed by steady development progress and growing institutional interest. The upcoming Fusaka upgrade, scheduled for later this year, has improved the fundamental outlook by addressing scalability and protocol efficiency — factors that could influence ETH’s long-term supply dynamics and utility.
Short-term technical picture
Price is consolidating in a clear band. A confirmed move above $4,500 could pave the way to $5,000 and reopen the bullish narrative for the year-end. Conversely, losing the $3,900 support would likely invite a correction toward the mid-$3,000s, weighing on sentiment and altcoin performance.
Bear case for ETH: Why Bitcoin still holds the crown
Despite Ethereum’s technical strengths and active ecosystem, Bitcoin remains deeply entrenched in mainstream finance. BTC’s role as a macro hedge and a preferred crypto reserve asset gives it an edge that’s hard to dislodge quickly. Crypto ETF flows continue to favor Bitcoin products, and large institutional allocations still tilt toward BTC when funds enter digital-asset portfolios.
Risk factors for Ethereum
Ethereum faces several potential headwinds: persistently high gas fees or temporary liquidity stress, disappointing upgrade outcomes, or macro-driven risk aversion that reduces demand for risk-on assets. If ETH slips below $3,900, analysts warn of a potential pullback to the $3,600–$3,700 area, which could undermine the recovery thesis.
ETH price prediction based on current levels
For ETH to flip Bitcoin at current BTC prices, it would need a market capitalization close to $2.41 trillion — implying an ETH price near $20,000 per coin. That represents roughly a 5x increase in Ethereum’s market cap assuming Bitcoin’s market cap remains static. Most market observers view that scenario as unlikely in the near term, though not impossible over multiple cycles if Ethereum’s ecosystem continues to expand rapidly.
Scenarios to watch
- Bull scenario: Clear breakout above $4,500, sustained ETF and institutional inflows into ETH-based products, successful Fusaka upgrade, and improving on-chain metrics could push ETH back toward $5,000 and beyond, narrowing the gap with Bitcoin.
- Bear scenario: A loss of $3,900 support, negative macro surprises, or waning interest in altcoins could pull ETH into the mid-$3Ks and derail momentum.
- Midline outcome: Gradual ecosystem growth, combined with continued—but slower—institutional adoption, supports a cautiously optimistic outlook without an immediate flippening.
What could change the flippening odds?
Key drivers that could materially increase the probability of a flip include major institutional allocations into Ethereum, large-scale DeFi and NFT adoption waves that boost real activity and fee capture, and demonstrable deflationary pressure from protocol-level changes. Conversely, if Bitcoin maintains dominant ETF inflows and continues to be perceived as a primary macro hedge, ETH’s path to overtaking BTC remains steep.
In summary, while Ethereum’s roadmap, deflationary supply mechanics, and growing institutional footprint make it a top contender in the crypto landscape, a near-term flip of Bitcoin is a high bar. Traders should watch technical breakouts, ETF flows, on-chain metrics, and the success of protocol upgrades to assess how probabilities evolve heading into the next bull cycle.
Source: crypto
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