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Apple still sits at the top of the tech world by market cap, but a growing chorus of analysts says that chipmaker TSMC could close the gap — and fast. As AI demand explodes and wafer fabs race to shrink nodes, the balance of power between device makers and foundries is shifting in unexpected ways.
Why TSMC is becoming indispensable
TSMC has quietly transformed into the backbone of next-generation computing. The Taiwanese foundry manufactures the advanced chip nodes that power AI data centers, smartphones and a range of specialized accelerators. With nearly every major company turning to TSMC for cutting-edge process technology, its strategic importance has risen sharply.
Production scale tells the story: TSMC expects to produce roughly 160,000 wafers per month by the end of 2025, while its 3nm capacity is projected to be nearly maxed out by 2026. Two planned 2nm fabs in Taiwan are reported to be fully allocated, and the company is preparing sizable investments — including a $49 billion push toward 1.4nm production — to meet future demand.
Apple’s growth is slowing — is saturation to blame?
Apple remains the world’s most valuable consumer electronics firm, with a market cap far exceeding TSMC’s. But analyst Keithen Drury, cited by local press, argues Apple faces global market saturation. Revenue growth has cooled: since mid-2022, the company has recorded only one quarter of double-digit growth, suggesting limited upside in its core hardware business.
That slowdown matters because Apple is also TSMC’s largest customer. If Apple’s sales momentum stalls while AI-driven demand for advanced chips surges across cloud, enterprise and specialized AI startups, TSMC’s business could expand faster than its longtime client.
Numbers that could flip the leaderboard
- Apple market value: about 4 trillion dollars.
- TSMC market value: roughly 1.4 trillion dollars today.
- Projected monthly wafer output: about 160,000 by end of 2025 for TSMC.
- 2nm and 1.4nm investments: large-scale capacity plans, including a reported $49 billion for next-gen fabs.
Those figures underpin the bullish thesis that TSMC could overtake Apple in market cap within a few years, potentially by 2030 if AI center demand grows as expected. Still, analysts caution these forecasts assume substantial, sustained expansion in the AI compute market.
What might derail the foundry ascent?
The scenario that crowns TSMC as the world’s top company is not guaranteed. Risks include slower-than-expected AI infrastructure spending, geopolitical disruptions that affect supply chains, and competitive advances by Samsung and other foundries. TSMC also faces the technical and capital challenges of scaling cutting-edge nodes at global scale — a feat requiring enormous investment and flawless execution.
Investors should note that the bullish forecasts contain high-growth assumptions. A breakout in AI data center investment would favor TSMC, but any major stall in that market would change the math quickly.
Why this matters to consumers and businesses
The shifting dynamic between Apple and TSMC isn’t just a headline about market caps. It highlights how the tech ecosystem reorganizes around AI and chipmaking. If foundries like TSMC continue to command the most advanced process technology, they’ll shape which companies can compete in AI hardware and services — and who ends up leading the next decade of innovation.
So the next time you hear about wafer counts or node names like 3nm and 2nm, remember: those tiny numbers could determine much bigger shifts in tech influence and stock market rankings.
Source: wccftech
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