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Long-term Bitcoin holders sharply reduce selling
Bitcoin long-term holders have materially pulled back from selling, with spending by investors who acquired BTC more than five years ago dropping to a 19-month low. On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows the 90-day average of spent transaction outputs (STXO) for this cohort has fallen to 962 BTC — the lowest level since November 2024. The decline follows a series of intense selling waves across the last two years, including a peak of 3,860 BTC in May 2024.
STXO shows reduced movement from OG investors
Crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted that this cohort produced historically high selling throughout the current cycle. Using STXO to track coins that have moved on-chain, Darkfost identified three major distribution periods after sharp rallies: a 90-day moving average high of 3,860 BTC in May 2024, 3,200 BTC in February 2025 and 2,360 BTC in September 2025. Some individual sessions recorded outsized outputs exceeding 10,000, 30,000 and even 142,000 BTC.
OG Bitcoin Holders selling pressure.
The recent slowdown in STXO suggests that many long-term holders are increasingly reluctant to realize gains. Darkfost noted that the most expensive coins in this group were acquired around $63,200 — a level close to spot Bitcoin prices — yet these holders are not pressing the sell button, signaling conviction among strong hands.
aNUPL and realized-cap splits reveal investor behavior
Researcher Axel Adler Jr. drew attention to a divergence between short-term holders (STH) and long-term holders (LTH). Bitcoin's adjusted net unrealized profit/loss (aNUPL) moved to -0.14 from near zero just weeks earlier, indicating the average holder is again in unrealized losses as BTC traded near $62,500. However, Adler Jr. emphasized that this loss is concentrated among newer participants: short-term capital has fallen sharply while long-term capital has barely drawn down, pointing to a selective capitulation rather than broad-base liquidation across the market.
STH vs LTH realized cap analysis.
Adler Jr. added that aNUPL spent nearly half of the past three months below zero, consistent with persistent pressure on recent entrants rather than erosion of long-term conviction. This dynamic is important for traders and investors monitoring on-chain metrics and realized cap trends to assess risk and timing.
Halving cycle timing points toward a September bottom
Separately, several traders and analysts are converging on a potential market bottom in the September timeframe by applying historical halving-cycle behavior. Analyst LP flagged a recurring pattern: the previous bear market experienced a final capitulation phase about 826 days after the halving, followed by a major low and an extended sideways consolidation lasting 70 to 110 days.
For the current cycle the 826-day marker falls on July 6, which, when coupled with the 70-to-110-day consolidation window, places a probable bottoming period in early September. LP suggested this timeline becomes more compelling if Bitcoin keeps trading higher into early July, as momentum into that marker could draw liquidity and trigger the typical capitulation-consolidation sequence.
BTC bottom analysis by LP.
Quarterly technicals and liquidity gaps
Other traders are identifying concrete downside liquidity zones that could act as magnet points for price. Trader Titan pointed to an untapped quarterly low near $58,900 and an open fair value gap roughly between $49,000 and $58,900. Leaving the quarterly low untested into September could amplify focus on that liquidity band and eventually lead to a market bottom toward the end of Q3 or in Q4.
BTC quarterly analysis.
What this means for traders and investors
Taken together, lower STXO from OG holders, aNUPL signaling stress among short-term participants, and halving-based cycle analysis present a coherent case for a potential bottoming window in September. For traders, watch liquidity clusters, quarterly fair value gaps, and realized-cap dynamics. For investors focused on long-term accumulation, the muted selling from LTHs suggests stronger conviction among legacy holders and reduced likelihood of large-scale distribution from the oldest cohorts.
Monitoring on-chain metrics like STXO, aNUPL, realized cap and liquidity zones alongside macro and halving-driven timelines will help market participants better navigate volatility and identify high-conviction entry opportunities in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Source: cointelegraph
Comments
coinflux
is this even true? STXO drop could just be coins moving to cold wallets, not selling. halving-timing feels like curve fitting, curious if LTH conviction really holds…
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