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Bitcoin extends weakness despite Fed easing
Bitcoin sellers remained active after the Federal Reserve delivered its third consecutive rate cut, signaling that easier monetary policy alone has not been enough to reignite a sustained crypto rally. The Fed trimmed the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.50%–3.75% range, a move that included a dissenting call from Stephen Miran, a Trump-appointed official who pushed for a deeper 50 bps reduction.
On-chain metrics point to more downside risk
On-chain analysis from Ali Charts shows realized losses for Bitcoin are hovering around -18% — a reading that, while negative, sits well above the roughly -37% level historically associated with major cycle capitulation points. Realized losses measure the actual loss taken when an asset changes hands, making them a useful indicator of when widespread selling has exhausted itself and value buyers tend to step in.
That gap between current realized losses and past-cycle bottoms suggests the market may still have more room to fall before hitting a classical capitulation event that would historically mark a compelling long-term buying opportunity.
Holder behavior: short-term selling, long-term accumulation
The market structure reveals a divergence across holder cohorts. Short-term holders are trimming positions and locking in gains — a behavior that increases near-term selling pressure — while long-term holders continue to accumulate on weakness. This tug-of-war has left BTC range-bound near technical support despite the Fed’s looser stance.
Why the rate cuts haven’t sparked a crypto bid
There are several reasons the rate cuts have not produced a decisive bitcoin rally. First, monetary easing does not always translate immediately into higher-risk asset appetite when traders are uncertain about growth, inflation, or geopolitics. Second, traditional safe-haven assets have outperformed digital assets in recent stretches, drawing capital away from crypto. Finally, regulatory ambiguity and profit-taking after recent rallies have weighed on sentiment.
Markets are still pricing in the possibility of further easing across 2026, but that expectation has not been sufficient to flip the current bearish momentum. Analysts note that until realized losses compress nearer to historical capitulation thresholds — or until on-chain signals show a clearer exhaustion of selling — Bitcoin prices may remain vulnerable to further downside.
Outlook for traders and investors
For traders, the near-term environment suggests volatility and range trading around current supports. Long-term investors who focus on accumulation may view dips as opportunities, but many will wait for clearer signs of capitulation or improving macro visibility. On-chain data, realized-loss thresholds, holder cohort flows, and macro policy guidance will remain critical indicators for gauging the next major directional move in BTC and the broader crypto market.
Source: crypto
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