XRP Forms Bullish Pennant After 51% Rally — $2 Next?

XRP consolidates after a rapid 51% seven-day surge

XRP has entered a phase of consolidation near $1.48 after surging roughly 51.5% over seven days, climbing from about $1.00 to an intraday peak near $1.69. The move has reignited market interest in XRP price action, Ripple's outlook, and the technical setup that now appears on the 4-hour chart: a potential bullish pennant. Traders and investors are watching key resistance around $1.56 — a decisive close above that level would increase the probability of a continuation toward higher targets, including a psychological $2 mark.

Why this rally gained momentum

The most recent rally followed renewed optimism over U.S. crypto regulation. President Donald Trump hosted industry leaders, including Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, and publicly urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act. That bill aims to divide oversight of digital assets between the SEC and the CFTC, a development markets interpret as potentially reducing regulatory uncertainty for tokens like XRP.

Macro liquidity conditions also added support. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced higher long-dated Treasury buybacks while the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield pulled back from 5.34% to about 5.19%, a move that can improve demand for risk assets by lowering the relative return on government debt. On the flows side, XRP reportedly saw a roughly $18 million daily inflow into U.S. spot exchange-traded funds during the week, providing a direct source of buying pressure.

Technical setup: a classic bullish pennant on the 4-hour

On the 4-hour timeframe, XRP produced a steep flagpole from roughly $1.00 to $1.58 and then entered a tight consolidation where price is compressing between descending resistance and rising support — the classic pennant structure. That pattern is considered bullish when it follows a strong advance and resolves to the upside.

XRP price 4-hour chart — Aug. 25 

A confirmed breakout requires a decisive close above the pennant’s upper trendline accompanied by a meaningful pickup in volume. Using the conventional measured move technique — adding the height of the flagpole to the breakout level — the roughly $0.58 rise implies a theoretical target above $2 if the breakout commences near $1.50. These measured targets are technical projections, not guarantees, but they align with several trader forecasts.

Crypto analyst Altcoin Sherpa described the current consolidation as "constructive," noting that a renewed push could see XRP approach $2 on the next major move. That view mirrors the pennant-derived target but depends on clearing the key resistance levels noted below.

Indicators: momentum cooling but bullish bias intact

Short-term momentum indicators show a mixed picture. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 58.7, down from overbought territory — a sign that the market is digesting gains while bullish momentum remains present above the 50 midpoint. The MACD recently produced a bearish crossover on the 4-hour chart, with the MACD line dipping below the signal line and a slightly negative histogram reading, indicating that upward momentum has temporarily weakened during consolidation.

Money flow metrics remain supportive: the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) on the daily chart reads about 0.08, showing that buying pressure is still exceeding selling pressure after the pullback from $1.69. A sustained decline below zero on CMF would warn that capital is exiting the XRP market.

XRP price daily chart — Aug. 25 

On-chain signals and whale activity

On-chain data also painted a vivid picture of increased engagement. Analyst Ali Charts cited Santiment data showing active addresses spiking roughly 654.71% from 47,180 to 356,070 — a surge that typically corresponds with heightened participation and greater short-term volatility.

Additionally, whale wallets reportedly accumulated roughly 380 million XRP during the week. Large-scale accumulation can reduce circulating sell-side supply if holdings move off-exchange; however, up-to-date exchange-balance and wallet snapshots are necessary to confirm whether that trend continued through the consolidation.

Liquidity landscape: liquidation clusters could accelerate moves

Short-term liquidity maps show concentrated leverage and liquidation zones that could influence the next directional move. A three-day liquidation heatmap points to a dense cluster of leveraged positions around $1.54–$1.56. If price pushes into that zone, forced short liquidations could add momentum to an upside breakout.

XRP liquidation heatmap 

Conversely, downside liquidity is heavier between $1.42 and $1.45, with a bright band near $1.43. A drop into that area might trigger long liquidations and exacerbate a pullback. These liquidity clusters are critical for traders using leverage; they often determine whether a move extends quickly or peters out during consolidation.

Key support and resistance levels to watch

Immediate resistance aligns with the Murrey Math level at $1.5625. A daily close above that line would also terminate the pennant on higher timeframes and strengthen the bullish case. Follow-up resistance levels include $1.6602 (near the weekly high), $1.7578, and $1.8555 — each of which must be cleared before the market can credibly test the $2 psychological target.

On the downside, the pennant’s rising lower trendline provides near-term support around $1.46. If that level fails, traders will look to $1.3672 as the next major reversal point on the daily chart, followed by $1.2695. A sustained break below $1.3672 would invalidate the 4-hour pennant and increase the risk the consolidation becomes a larger correction.

Trading scenarios and risk management

Bullish scenario: XRP secures a high-volume close above $1.56, successfully retests that area as support, and leverages short-liquidation clusters to accelerate toward $1.66, $1.76, and $1.86 before challenging $2. Confirmation would come from rising volume and improving MACD momentum on the breakout.

Bearish scenario: Failure to hold $1.46 exposes the lower liquidity band around $1.42–$1.45 and risks a deeper retracement toward $1.3672, which would call the pennant’s continuation into question. A move below key on-chain support and a shift of CMF below zero would signal capital leaving the market.

For traders and investors, prudent position sizing, clear stop-loss placement around highlighted support levels, and attention to volume and on-chain metrics can help manage risk amid the volatility.

Bottom line

XRP’s recent 51% run has set up a textbook bullish pennant on the 4-hour chart, with a theoretical measured target that aligns with trader calls for a move toward $2. The catalyst mix of regulatory optimism around the CLARITY Act, ETF inflows, improved macro liquidity, whale accumulation, and a spike in active addresses underpins the bullish narrative. Still, the pattern remains unconfirmed until XRP posts a convincing high-volume close above $1.56 and retests that level as support. On the flip side, a break below $1.46 would shift focus to lower liquidity clusters and raise the odds of a deeper correction. Traders should combine technical levels with on-chain and flow data to build a robust, risk-aware view of XRP price prospects.