Bitcoin Nears $77K as Nasdaq Slides, Red October Market

Bitcoin dips toward $77,000 as cross-asset selling intensifies

Bitcoin was trading near $77,000 as October drew to a close, pressured by a broad selloff that hit U.S. technology stocks and precious metals. The drop deepened losses during a month that historically has favored gains for the flagship crypto. Market turbulence followed reports of a security incident at Binance and weaker U.S. spot demand indicators, keeping traders cautious ahead of the final session of the month.

Key market moves

• Bitcoin touched about $77,646 on Oct. 30 after the Binance disclosure, while Ether traded near $2,238 and BNB around $694, the latter falling more than 8% over 24 hours.
• The Nasdaq closed the week down 2.9%, sitting roughly 7.8% below its Oct. 6 record close amid concerns about AI-related tech spending.
• Gold slid below $3,900 an ounce, and silver also posted steep losses, while Brent crude climbed above $117 a barrel, illustrating uneven flows across traditional assets and commodities.

October performance and historical context

October has long carried the moniker "Uptober" among crypto investors due to strong historical returns. Data since 2013 show Bitcoin advanced in the majority of Octobers, with a median return in the mid-teens. That pattern, however, weakened last year when Bitcoin fell 3.95% in October 2025. With another down month possible in 2026, Bitcoin could record back-to-back negative Octobers, a rarity given the prior trend.

Seasonal narratives can magnetize traders, but analysts caution that calendar patterns are poor substitutes for market fundamentals. Factors such as liquidity, macro conditions, positioning and actual buy-side demand typically drive sustained moves in BTC price more than a specific month on the calendar.

Demand signals and on-chain indicators

On-chain and exchange-based metrics signaled softer U.S. spot demand through October. CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium Index stayed negative for much of the month, hitting about -0.146 on Oct. 24, a sign that U.S.-listed exchange prices were trading below offshore venues. CryptoQuant’s apparent-demand model implied an approximate shortfall of 76,000 BTC over a 30-day window by Oct. 25. The firm’s Bull Score Index also fell from a very bullish 90 down to 60, even though the majority of the underlying indicators retained bullish readings.

ETF flows and institutional activity

ETF flows offered a mixed signal in late October. SoSoValue reported $176 million of net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Oct. 27, dominated by BlackRock’s IBIT ($151.5 million) and Fidelity’s FBTC ($24.5 million). That buying provided some counterbalance to weaker spot-demand indicators. At the same time, U.S. spot Ether ETFs showed withdrawals totaling about $60.2 million the same day, underscoring divergent investor preferences between Bitcoin and Ether exposure.

Research views: bears vs. bulls

Despite weakness in October, several research teams and strategists continue to defend a bullish view on Bitcoin’s medium-term outlook. Some firms argue the cycle low is already in—10x Research cited a bullish turning point when BTC traded around $63,000 in mid-August, while analysts at Galaxy Research pointed to on-chain and moving-average behavior as evidence the prior bear phase ended in June. Their arguments referenced Bitcoin holding its 200-week moving average and reclaiming its 50-week moving average for multiple weeks in succession.

Other analysts urge caution. They emphasize that seasonal recovery narratives are fragile when liquidity or positioning shifts quickly, and that macro drivers—including policy, rates and capital flows into risk assets—remain key for the next leg of any crypto rally.

Cross-market dynamics and investor sentiment

Friday’s declines arrived as selling broadened across asset classes tied to different investment rationales. Precious metals and technology stocks weakened sharply while energy futures advanced, exposing a bifurcated market reaction rather than a single, uniform collapse. Social-media commentary amplified alarm—one widely shared post claimed that "every asset on earth is crashing at the exact same time"—but the market data showed a more nuanced picture with winners and losers across sectors.

Meanwhile, the Binance security incident injected short-term volatility and headline risk into crypto markets, prompting quick reactions in spot and altcoin prices. Traders will watch whether this event meaningfully alters trade flows into exchanges or spot ETFs in coming days.

Outlook: what to watch next

Short-term BTC direction will likely hinge on a mix of technical levels, ETF flows and macro sentiment. Key items for traders and long-term investors to monitor include:

• U.S. spot ETF net flows and whether inflows persist beyond headline-driven moves.
• Exchange-based premiums and apparent demand metrics for signs of renewed buying pressure from U.S. investors.
• Price action around major moving averages and volume confirmation on any recovery attempts.
• Broader equity market dynamics, especially tech earnings and AI-related spending signals that influence risk appetite.

For now, Bitcoin’s retreat into the final session of October underscores the market’s sensitivity to cross-asset shocks and headline events. While some institutional indicators and research teams remain constructive, the balance of near-term risk favors caution until clearer evidence of sustained demand and macro stability emerges.