Glassnode Analysis: When Will Bitcoin Resume Bull Run

Glassnode signals risk-on after BTC tops $70,000

Glassnode's Vector model has flipped into a risk-on stance after Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed levels above $70,000. This is the first bullish indication from the on-chain model since the protracted downtrend began from the $126,000 peak in October 2025. While the shift points to renewed buyer interest, Glassnode's broader macro risk indicator remains cautious and has not yet issued a full confirmation.

What this means for Bitcoin price action

The recent move above $70k pushed BTC above the average cost basis of many recent buyers, reducing break-even selling pressure. That dynamic, together with positive spot Bitcoin ETF flows, has supported the rally so far. However, several technical and on-chain tests will determine whether this relief bounce becomes a sustainable bull market.

Key support levels to hold

• Short-term holder cost basis: $70,200 — Bitcoin needs to stay above this level to maintain short-term buyer confidence.
• True Market Mean: roughly $76,200 — holding this real market average is critical for sentiment.
• 200-day moving average: about $69,100 — remaining above this moving average is another bullish prerequisite.

Resistance to overcome

A decisive break above $83,000 is required to register a higher high and confirm a return to a sustained uptrend. Without a clean breakout through this resistance, upside momentum may stall and invite renewed selling.

Institutional flows and market structure

U.S. spot Bitcoin funds recorded approximately $1.92 billion of inflows between August 20 and September 2, underlining that the recent surge is supported by real institutional demand. For the rally to mature into a full bull market, inflows will need to persist, particularly as BTC approaches the $83k resistance band.

Bottom line

Glassnode's Vector flip and nearly $2 billion in spot ETF inflows signal returning buyers, but confirmation of a durable bull run requires Bitcoin to hold key support near $76,200 and to break convincingly above $83,000. Traders should watch on-chain metrics, institutional flows, and technical levels for confirmation.