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Weekly XAUUSD Outlook: Gold Poised for Further Gains Following NFP Weakness
Gold (XAUUSD) surged last week after disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data in the US triggered a sharp dollar selloff. This boost in gold prices above $3360 by Friday’s close suggests that bullish momentum may persist, even if some early-week retracement occurs. Cryptocurrency and blockchain investors often track gold as a traditional safe-haven asset, making gold’s movements critical for broader macro market sentiment.
Potential Upside Targets for XAUUSD
Market sentiment now leans bullish for gold, with price targets set at $3440 and a fresh all-time high (ATH) above $3500. With ongoing global economic uncertainty, gold remains an appealing hedge against currency volatility and inflation, themes often echoed in the cryptocurrency sector.
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Key U.S. Economic Events Influencing Gold This Week
This week brings several important US economic releases that could impact the XAUUSD pair:
- August 5 – ISM Services PMI: Actual: 51.5 vs. Forecast: 50.8. Stronger-than-expected services growth points to US economic resilience, briefly strengthening the dollar and putting short-term pressure on gold prices.
- August 7 – Unemployment Claims: Actual: 221K vs. Forecast: 218K. Slightly higher claims suggest a weakening job market, which may encourage dovish policy expectations from the Federal Reserve, potentially benefiting gold.
With the macro environment shifting, crypto market participants are watching traditional assets like gold for clues on dollar liquidity and risk sentiment.
Gold Higher Timeframe (HTF) Analysis
Analysis of the monthly chart suggests gold is moving toward external liquidity, confirming forecasts from previous XAUUSD outlooks. The next resistance lies at $3440, with a possible retest of the $3500 ATH on the horizon if bullish momentum holds.
Technical Focus: August 4–8, 2025
The 4-hour XAUUSD chart indicates a decisive bullish structure. The best-buy zone lies within the breaker block spanning $3334 to $3325, bolstered by confluence with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. Meanwhile, the 1-hour chart holds a bearish order block (OB) around $3365–$3373, suggesting potential scalp selling opportunities, but the prevailing trend now favors buying dips over aggressive shorting.
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[Image: XAUUSD 1h chart – Source: Tradingview]
Trading Strategy and Investment Considerations
While there may be opportunities for both long and short positions this week, the risk-to-reward strongly favors buying gold on retracements. Crypto traders should note that lower timeframes may present short setups, but higher timeframe trends still support holding or adding to buy positions in XAUUSD. Gold’s ongoing rally underscores its safe-haven appeal, especially relevant as the digital asset ecosystem matures amid persistent macro uncertainty.
Key Support and Resistance Zones
- Resistance: $3365–$3373 (1-hour bearish order block)
- Support: $3334–$3325 (4-hour breaker block, 0.5 Fib retracement)
Staying updated on macroeconomic data and monitoring key technical levels will be crucial for successful trading in both gold and cryptocurrencies this week.
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