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Bitcoin steadies below $119,000 as leverage cools
Bitcoin is trading just under the $119,000 mark, with a quieter leverage environment helping to stabilize the market after recent volatility. In an Aug. 15 analysis, CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain noted that the estimated leverage ratio (ELR) across major derivatives platforms has eased from early August highs above 0.27 to roughly 0.25, before a minor uptick. That contrasts with May and late July, when concurrent rises in price and leverage signaled larger, more aggressive bets from traders.
Why lower leverage supports market stability
The reduction in leverage suggests traders are trimming risky positions even as BTC remains elevated. This deleveraging helps prevent the cascading liquidations that often follow highly leveraged rallies, meaning price moves are more likely to reflect real liquidity and spot demand rather than speculative excess. Arab Chain highlights that the ELR has been stable in the 0.24–0.25 range, which could provide a healthier foundation for further upside if spot buying stays aligned with measured leverage.
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Technical picture: indicators and key levels
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin sits just below the midline of its Bollinger Bands, with the upper band near $119,900 acting as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators are neutral to mildly bullish: the relative strength index (RSI) sits at 55, while stochastic %K is 68.7, implying steady but not extreme momentum. Moving averages show bullish alignment from the short to long term, with the 10-day EMA at $118,676 and the 200-day SMA around $100,152. A positive Bull Bear Power reading, together with supportive MACD signals, complements occasional flash buy signals from momentum metrics.
Potential scenarios and price targets
If leverage remains contained, a decisive break above $119,900–$120,000 could open a run toward roughly $123,000. Conversely, a rejection at that resistance combined with an ELR spike above 0.27 could push BTC back toward the 20-day EMA near $117,700 or the 50-day EMA near $114,900. Traders watching Bitcoin price action should monitor ELR, derivatives funding rates, and spot liquidity for signs of renewed speculative pressure or sustained demand.
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