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Is XRP at risk of a September crash?
XRP’s recent pullback has traders and investors watching closely as August closes with losses. If XRP fails to hold key support near $2.80, technical and on-chain indicators suggest a sharper correction in September could follow — possibly pushing prices closer to $2 or lower. Below we unpack the on-chain cost-basis clusters, weekly technicals such as the MACD and EMAs, and the Fibonacci levels traders are using to map downside risk.
XRP XRP $2.80 has dropped more than 22.30% in the past month after peaking near $3.66, putting August on track for a losing close.
On-chain data: cost-basis heatmap points to a critical supply band
Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution highlights a dense cluster of XRP supply between $2.81 and $2.82 where roughly 1.71 billion tokens were acquired. As long as price sits above that zone, selling pressure may remain contained. But a daily close decisively below $2.80 risks activating stop-losses and profit-taking from that cohort, which would amplify downward momentum.
A fall through the $2.81–$2.82 supply shelf could therefore trigger a cascading sell-off. That would put the next meaningful support at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near $1.73, a level that acted as a reliable floor in early 2025.
Technicals: MACD fractal warns of a potential ~25% drop
Weekly momentum indicators are flashing caution. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the weekly chart is approaching a bearish crossover: when the faster line crosses beneath the slower signal line, it often signals a loss of upward momentum and precedes larger pullbacks.
Historical precedent
Past weekly MACD bearish crosses for XRP — notably in May 2021, September 2021 and March 2025 — coincided with substantial retracements that tested the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA). If a similar fractal plays out now, XRP could slide toward the 50-week EMA near $2.17, about a 25% decline from recent levels.
Deeper downside scenario
If price breaches the 50-week EMA and then drops below the $1.73 0.5 Fib, the technical structure would suggest a bear market. In that case, the 200-week EMA — roughly $1.19 — becomes the next major downside target. That level aligns closely with the realized price (average cost basis) of current holders, according to Glassnode, which increases the risk of accelerated selling if losses widen.
What traders should watch
Key levels and indicators for XRP in September:
- Immediate support: $2.80–$2.82 (Glassnode cost-basis cluster)
- First major floor: 50-week EMA (~$2.17)
- Critical Fib support: 0.5 retracement near $1.73
- Bear-market target if structure fails: 200-week EMA (~$1.19)
Monitoring weekly MACD behavior, realized price distribution and on-chain transfer activity will help gauge whether this pullback is a normal correction or the start of a deeper downturn.
Outlook: balanced but cautious
While several technicals point to downside risk if $2.80 does not hold, bullish forces remain — including the large pool of holders currently in profit and analysts who still forecast higher targets for XRP later in the cycle. Short-term traders should manage risk around the highlighted support bands, and longer-term investors should watch for confirmations that selling pressure has eased before adding to positions.
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