6 Minutes
Long-term holders accelerate profit-taking as BTC volume spikes
Long-term bitcoin holders — wallets that have not moved coins for months or even years — markedly increased selling last week, offloading roughly 97,000 BTC (about $3 billion) in a single day. Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode identified the transfer as the largest single-day long-term holder sell-off of 2025, and it accounts for the majority of a recent surge in spending activity from this cohort.
Glassnode uses a 155-day threshold to define long-term holders, and key on-chain indicators for this group have shifted noticeably. The 14-day moving average of coins spent by long-term holders has climbed to nearly 25,000 BTC, the highest level recorded since January. This on-chain acceleration is a clear signal that patient investors are trimming positions after bitcoin breached six figures earlier in the year.
BTC's volume spent on long-term holders.
Immediate market reaction: price dip and volatility
The sell-off contributed to a pullback in BTC price. Bitcoin dropped more than 3.7% to around $108,000 on Friday and slid further to about $107,400 early Monday. At the time of reporting, BTC was trading near $103,330 — roughly 16% below its all-time high of $124,429, per CoinDesk data. While the move is meaningful, analysts note that the pace of profit-taking remains slower and more measured than the intense outflows seen in late 2024.
Why long-term holders are taking profits
Several behavioral and market-structure drivers help explain why long-term holders decided to sell into strength:
- Investor psychology: Prices above $100,000 make bitcoin an unusually large nominal asset on a per-unit basis. For many holders, reaching six figures creates a strong incentive to realize gains and de-risk portfolios.
- Rotation and rebalancing: Wealth managers, crypto funds, and long-time holders often rebalance after large, rapid price gains to lock in profits and redeploy capital across other strategies or asset classes.
- Market liquidity and price discovery: As the market adapts to $100K as a potential new baseline, sellers test liquidity and demand. Some holders prefer to scale out gradually rather than wait for higher highs.
These dynamics suggest a market still in the process of absorbing a higher valuation level. Instead of a decisive trend reversal, the recent activity points to an extended period of high-range trading around six figures while participants recalibrate expectations.
On-chain context and what metrics to watch
On-chain analytics provide a real-time window into supply-side behavior. Key metrics and indicators traders and analysts should monitor include:
- Long-term holder spending: The 14-day moving average and total daily spent by wallets with >155 days of dormancy reveal whether selling is episodic or sustained.
- Exchange reserves: Rising BTC balances on exchanges often precede price pressure as coins are made available for sale; falling reserves typically signal accumulation.
- MVRV and realized cap: These help gauge whether long-term holders are exiting at significant profits and where unrealized gains are concentrated.
- Futures open interest and funding rates: If derivatives show elevated leverage, price moves can be amplified by liquidations.
Market implications: short-term turbulence, longer-term adjustment
This concentrated selling by long-term holders does not necessarily spell a structural top for bitcoin. Instead, it may represent a healthy redistribution of supply to newer investors and traders. Some possible market outcomes include:
- Extended range-bound trading: Bitcoin could spend weeks or months oscillating around the six-figure mark as participants acclimate to a higher price regime.
- Temporary volatility spikes: Large single-day sales create price shocks that may be followed by rebounds once buyers absorb supply.
- Repricing of expectations: Over time, sustained adoption and macro flows could normalize $100K+ valuations, reducing the incentive to take profits at this level.
Investors should keep a diversified plan and avoid reacting to single-day events in isolation. Long-term holders selling into strength can be a healthy part of market maturation, redistributing tokens to active traders, institutional allocators, and new entrants.
How traders and investors can respond
For crypto-savvy readers considering their next moves, here are practical steps to manage risk and opportunity:
- Monitor on-chain flows: Track long-term holder spending, exchange inflows, and accumulation trends to better time entries and exits.
- Use staged allocation: Scale into positions with dollar-cost averaging to reduce the impact of short-term volatility.
- Watch derivatives: Funding rates and open interest provide early signs of crowded trades and potential leverage-driven corrections.
- Set risk controls: Stop-loss orders, portfolio caps for crypto exposure, and rebalancing rules help preserve gains when markets move rapidly.
Outlook: gradual normalization rather than a crash
The large sale by long-term bitcoin holders is notable but not unprecedented. The market's reaction has been measured compared with sharper drawdowns seen in prior cycles. If selling continues at elevated levels, price pressure could persist, but current data suggests the activity is part of a broader redistribution rather than an outright capitulation.
Analysts will be watching whether this is a concentrated event or the start of a trend. Key signals that would strengthen a bearish case include sustained increases in exchange reserves, a surge in long-term holder selling over multiple days, and a breakdown below key support levels. Conversely, declining exchange balances, renewed accumulation by strategic investors, or positive macro drivers could absorb selling and support a recovery.
Final takeaways
- Long-term holders moved roughly 97,000 BTC in the biggest single-day LTH sell-off of 2025, per Glassnode.
- The 14-day moving average of long-term holder spending has risen toward 25,000 BTC — the highest since January.
- Bitcoin’s price pulled back from recent highs, trading around $103,330 at the time of writing, but the profit-taking pace is slower than late 2024 spikes.
- Expect the market to spend time testing $100K as a possible new price baseline; traders should monitor on-chain metrics, exchange flows, and derivatives to gauge next moves.
This episode underscores the maturing nature of the bitcoin market: large, patient holders will periodically realize gains, and buyers must be ready to absorb that supply. For now, the signal is clear — the market is adjusting to a higher price regime, and price discovery may remain choppy as participants recalibrate.
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