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Monero price holds key $300 support after record reorganization
Monero (XMR) maintained a critical support level near $300 despite the network experiencing its largest-ever block reorganization on Sept. 14. The 43-minute event undermined miner confidence but—critically—did not produce any confirmed double-spends. Traders and on-chain analysts are now weighing rising speculative activity against renewed questions about Monero's decentralization and proof-of-work security.
Price action and market volumes
After the reorganization, XMR spiked to roughly $308 before settling back around $300. As of this report, Monero is trading at $300.87, up about 5.4% on the day, climbing roughly 10% over the past week and 27% over the last 30 days from its summer lows.
Spot trading volume increased approximately 25% to $87.5 million over 24 hours, while derivatives activity surged around 68% to $61.5 million, according to Coinglass. Open interest also expanded roughly 5.6% to $44.5 million, signaling growing leverage and a potential buildup in volatility for XMR futures markets.
What happened on-chain: the 18-block reorganization
On Sept. 14, Monero’s blockchain underwent an 18-block reorg affecting block heights 3,499,659 through 3,499,676. The rollback invalidated around 118 previously confirmed transactions and rewrote roughly 36 minutes of chain history. A reorganization like this occurs when competing chains are produced simultaneously and the network ultimately adopts the longest valid chain.
Investigators traced the incident to a short-lived hashrate concentration by the Qubic mining pool, which momentarily exceeded 51% of Monero’s hashing power and outpaced other pools. Although no confirmed double-spend transactions were identified, the event revived discussions about network safety, RandomX resistance to centralization, and how many confirmations users should require for finality.
Researchers now recommend that users consider waiting 20 or more confirmations for high-value Monero transfers, up from prior norms, until the network demonstrates greater hashrate distribution stability.
Technical outlook: bullish structure with overbought risks
From a technical perspective, Monero is retaining bullish momentum by staying above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages—signals many traders view as structurally constructive for XMR. The relative strength index (RSI) sits near 65, indicating strength but inching toward overbought territory.
Other oscillators provide mixed signals: stochastic indicators point to potential short-term cooling while the MACD remains in buy territory. For now, $300 is acting as a crucial support level. A decisive break below $290 would likely signal a short-term bearish retracement, whereas a sustained breakout above $310 could set the stage for additional upside.
Implications for miners, exchanges and traders
The event has prompted exchanges, custodial services, and payment processors to reassess confirmation policies and monitoring tools for XMR. Miners and pool operators are under scrutiny; if a single pool can re-create this concentration, further network centralization risks will remain a focus for the Monero community.
Derivatives flows and rising open interest indicate traders are pricing in higher volatility. Risk managers should watch funding rates, liquidations, and spot liquidity—especially around the $290–$310 range. Privacy-focused investors should also track any upstream changes to RandomX or mining incentives that could affect decentralization.
Bottom line
Monero’s ability to hold the $300 support after the record 18-block reorg demonstrates market resilience, but the episode exposed real single-pool control risk and has raised finality concerns. With elevated spot and derivatives volumes, traders should expect heightened intraday swings and consider adjusting confirmation requirements and position sizing accordingly. For long-term holders, the structural technicals remain constructive, but the path forward will depend on how quickly the network restores broader hashrate distribution and confidence.
Source: crypto
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