3 Minutes
Apple's upgrade cycle just got a vote of confidence from Wall Street: Morgan Stanley has raised its Apple (AAPL) price target to $298 after seeing stronger-than-expected demand that could presage a big 2026 refresh.
Supply checks show production on the verge of a bump
In March 2025 Morgan Stanley trimmed its target to $252 amid concerns that iPhone 17 upgrades would disappoint. New supplier conversations have changed that view. The bank says assembly lines haven't broadly ramped yet, but order flows indicate Apple will push iPhone production from about 84–86 million units into the low 90 millions during the final months of 2025.
The uplift looks concentrated at the top end: the iPhone 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max. Morgan Stanley believes those stronger Pro sales should offset weaker interest in the iPhone Air.
Why iPhone 18 suddenly looks more promising
Here’s the logic: a meaningful share of recent buyers appear to be owners of older iPhones — devices that are now ripe for replacement. As more phones age into that upgrade window next year, Morgan Stanley expects a renewed replacement cycle that favors the next-generation lineup.
Six models, more choices
The firm expects Apple to launch six iPhone models in 2026 — likely the iPhone 18e, base iPhone 18, iPhone Air, iPhone Fold, iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. The iPhone Fold, in particular, is singled out as a potential magnet for users who have delayed swapping older handsets.
Base case vs. bull case — the numbers that matter
Morgan Stanley’s base forecast calls for roughly 243 million iPhone shipments in 2026. In a bullish scenario — driven by strong iPhone Fold adoption and compelling Apple Intelligence features — that could climb to about 270 million units. The bull case supports a $376 price target.
Analysts also noted other encouraging signs: they correctly forecast Apple would keep its Google search arrangement and remain confident the company can navigate tariff pressures.
For investors and Apple watchers, the takeaway is straightforward: what began as only modest growth for the iPhone 17 family now looks like momentum that could lift Apple into a stronger upgrade cycle next year.
Source: appleinsider
Leave a Comment