5 Minutes
Market snapshot: ADA under renewed selling pressure
Cardano price is under fresh downward pressure after large on-chain sales by whales weighed on short-term momentum. At press time, ADA was trading around $0.6404, down about 0.7% on the day. The token has gained roughly 1.7% over the past week but remains near a 20% decline on a 30-day basis, trading within a tight seven-day band between $0.6303 and $0.6905 as investors adopt a cautious stance following recent volatility.
Key on-chain and market figures
Trading activity has cooled: Cardano's 24-hour spot volume eased by 6.3% to approximately $1.39 billion, signaling softer participation from retail and institutional traders. On futures markets, CoinGlass data shows futures volume jumped 34.83% to $2.11 billion even as open interest dipped slightly by 0.21% to $705.83 million. This combination suggests rotation of positions, with traders closing older contracts and opening new ones rather than establishing clear directional conviction.
Whale sell-off: 100M ADA moved in 72 hours
On-chain analyst Ali Martinez reported a concentrated outflow: whales sold about 100 million ADA, roughly $65 million, within a 72-hour window. Large, rapid sell-offs like this often spark short-term volatility and increase selling pressure, especially when liquidity is thinner. However, such moves do not necessarily translate to prolonged weakness if market participants absorb the supply and demand returns.
DeFi and on-chain usage show strain
Cardano's decentralized finance ecosystem is showing signs of cooling. According to DeFiLlama, total value locked (TVL) on Cardano has fallen from about $360 million in early October to near $280 million today. Monthly decentralized exchange volume has declined from $125 million in July to roughly $85 million this month, while the Cardano stablecoin market cap sits near $38.5 million. These metrics point to a gradual slowdown in on-chain activity that can amplify price sensitivity to large transactions.
Derivatives action and trader behavior
The rise in futures volume against marginally lower open interest implies active position management rather than aggressive directional betting. Traders are repositioning ahead of potential catalysts, including regulatory decisions and network upgrades. Higher futures turnover can increase intraday volatility, especially when concentrated selling occurs on the spot market.
Technical outlook: mixed signals, near-term bearish tilt
Technical indicators lean bearish in the short term. The relative strength index (RSI) reads about 40, indicating weak momentum but not yet an oversold condition. A range of moving averages—from the 200-day simple moving average to the short-term 10-day exponential moving average—register sell signals as ADA trades below many key trend lines. Bollinger Bands show contracting volatility, while the MACD is providing a weak buy indication, suggesting that short-term relief rallies are possible if volume returns.
Cardano price daily chart
Crucial support and resistance
Immediate support sits around $0.578 (rounded to $0.58). A failure to hold that level could expose deeper support zones and open the path to lower prices. On the upside, resistance resides between $0.665 and $0.752; a sustained break above $0.665 could clear the way for a rebound toward $0.75, while rejection within that band would likely keep downside risk elevated.
Catalysts that could reverse the trend
Several external and protocol-specific catalysts could change Cardano's trajectory. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s pending decision on Grayscale's spot ADA ETF would be a major institutional catalyst if approved, potentially drawing fresh inflows similar to those seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. On the technical side, Cardano upgrades such as Ouroboros Leios and the Hydra layer-2 solution aim to improve scalability and lower transaction costs, which could boost developer activity and on-chain usage over time.
Events to watch
Investors will also track announcements from the Cardano Summit scheduled for November 2025, as governance updates, enterprise partnerships, or DeFi integrations revealed there could materially affect sentiment. For now, traders should monitor liquidity, whale movements, and volumes closely and set risk parameters given the heightened sensitivity to large on-chain transfers.
In sum, ADA faces short-term pressure driven by a significant whale sell-off and weakening on-chain metrics. The path higher requires renewed volume, favorable ETF-related regulatory outcomes, or tangible progress on scalability and adoption. Until then, risk management and attention to key technical levels will remain essential for traders and investors.
Source: crypto
Comments
coinpilot
100M ADA sold? Are whales moving or just dumping... liquidity's thin so could spike down fast, but ETF news might flip it, idk, watching rn
Leave a Comment