Bitcoin Could See Relief Bounce as Stabilization Emerges

Bitcoin shows signs of stabilisation after sharp sell-off

Bitcoin may be poised for a short-term recovery after a dramatic swing earlier this quarter. Analysts point to an 8% one-day surge and multiple market indicators that suggest a 'relief bounce' could be underway as selling pressure eases and leverage shrinks. At publication, BTC is trading around $91,440, according to CoinMarketCap, following a brief push toward $94,000 during the recent rally.

Why analysts believe a local bottom could be forming

Market observers including Bitfinex note a combination of factors that support a stabilisation phase. Key elements cited are extreme deleveraging, capitulation among short-term holders, and early signs of seller exhaustion. Those dynamics can reduce the chance of a sudden liquidation cascade and create room for consolidation and measured gains.

Leverage has become 'leaner'

Bitfinex analysts say the market now runs on a 'leaner leverage base', meaning there is less systemic risk from margin positions. After an estimated $19 billion in liquidations around Oct. 10, the crypto market entered a deeper correction that pushed BTC toward lows near $82,000 on Nov. 21. With remaining leverage relatively contained, a more stable consolidation phase becomes more plausible.

Cycle debates and what it means for price action

The recent pullback and rebound have reignited debate over Bitcoin's long-term cycle structure. Some traders argue the traditional four-year cycle no longer applies, noting that the October all-time highs near $125,100 no longer map neatly onto past patterns. Others remain optimistic, suggesting the rebound could extend into next year and that Bitcoin still has potential to reclaim higher milestones.

Analyst perspectives

Prominent voices in the crypto community are mixed but cautious. Analyst PlanC stated that 'this Bitcoin cycle is not like past cycles', urging followers to reassess assumptions. Quinten Francois suggested BTC is closer to the bottom than the top, while Tom Lee of Fundstrat expressed confidence that Bitcoin could retake the $100,000 level before year end. Historical seasonality offers limited guidance: December has averaged modest gains historically, but recent months have broken seasonal norms, with November delivering an unexpected decline despite typically being strong.

What traders should watch next

Traders and investors should monitor liquidity, open interest, and signs of renewed institutional flows. Key crypto metrics to watch include funding rates, derivatives liquidation levels, and on-chain indicators like exchange inflows and long-term holder accumulation. A controlled deleveraging and lower systemic fragility would support a measured recovery and reduce the probability of flash crashes driven by cascading liquidations.

Overall, while uncertainty remains, the current technical and on-chain signals point to a potential relief bounce for Bitcoin as market stress recedes and leverage becomes more contained. Investors should remain vigilant and balance risk management with a long-term view on blockchain adoption and macro trends that continue to shape crypto markets.