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Market snapshot: ETH struggles to reclaim $3,000
Ethereum is trading below the $3,000 mark as sustained spot ETH ETF outflows, cooling exchange activity, and weakening derivatives participation keep pressure on the second-largest cryptocurrency. At the time of writing, ETH was changing hands around $2,919, down roughly 0.5% on the day, off about 12% over the past week and approximately 41% below its August all-time high near $4,946.
Key short-term metrics
Daily spot trading volume has dropped to $22.3 billion — a 27% decline from the previous session — signaling thinner liquidity and fewer active traders stepping in as price action stalls beneath key resistance. On derivatives markets, CoinGlass data shows ETH derivatives volume fell by 31% to $58 billion while open interest slipped 2.2% to $36.87 billion. Those moves suggest market participants are trimming exposure rather than layering on new leverage, a classic sign of risk-off behavior.
Spot ETH ETFs: outflows extend to fourth day
Fund flows and institutional sentiment
U.S. spot ETH ETFs recorded net outflows totaling roughly $224.26 million on Dec. 16, marking the fourth straight day of withdrawals, according to SoSoValue. BlackRock’s ETHA led the decline with about $221 million pulled, while Fidelity’s FETH saw $2.94 million exit. Weekly outflows now total nearly $449 million, and in Q4 2025 Ethereum-focused ETFs have seen roughly $1.8 billion of net outflows, erasing much of the earlier inflow momentum this year.
Investor caution was broad-based: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $277 million leave on the same day, pushing combined BTC and ETH ETF outflows to more than $500 million — the largest single-day withdrawal in almost two weeks. These redemptions reflect a more conservative institutional stance amid macro uncertainty and slowing momentum for crypto-focused products.
Derivatives and volume signal lower participation
What the data implies
Lower futures and options volumes, together with decreasing open interest, indicate traders are de-risking. When both volume and open interest fall, it typically points to existing positions being closed rather than new bets being placed. That dynamic often exacerbates price weakness during pullbacks because fewer participants are willing to absorb sell-side flows.
Ethereum technical outlook
Technical indicators are currently biased toward sellers. ETH remains in a medium-term downtrend characterized by lower highs and lower lows; every rebound so far has been capped below the prior swing tops. On the daily chart, price has been hugging the lower Bollinger Band — a sign momentum is continuing in the same direction rather than reversing. The 20-day simple moving average, which forms the Bollinger middle band, has repeatedly acted as resistance and curtailed recent recovery attempts.
Ethereum price technical analysis
Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish picture: the 14-day RSI is near 41, well under the neutral 50 threshold, and there are no convincing bullish divergences. MACD, momentum oscillators, and several moving averages remain tilted toward downside bias. The moderate width of the Bollinger Bands suggests volatility continues to favor the current trend, making a sudden rally unlikely without a new catalyst.
Key levels to watch
For any short-term recovery, ETH needs to reclaim and hold above the $3,060–$3,100 zone. Failure to defend the $2,900 area would likely keep downside in focus, with $2,800 the next meaningful support level. Conversely, a decisive close above $3,100 accompanied by rising volume and inflows into spot ETH ETFs could reset market sentiment.
What could change the trajectory?
Reversal catalysts would include a return of ETF inflows, a pickup in derivatives activity that signals renewed risk appetite, or positive macro developments that reduce risk aversion. On-chain metrics showing rising long-term holder accumulation and higher exchange withdrawals could also provide a bullish counterweight. Until such signs materialize, traders and investors should plan for continued volatility and elevated downside risk.
Overall, Ethereum’s near-term outlook remains cautious: weakening volume, ETF outflows, and subdued derivatives participation combine to create a fragile market environment. Traders should monitor ETF flow data, futures open interest, and key technical levels to assess whether the current pullback has run its course or if further correction lies ahead.
Source: crypto
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