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Steady Bitcoin gains expected over the next decade
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan says Bitcoin is likely to produce solid returns over the next ten years, but investors shouldn’t expect the kind of blockbuster, year-on-year rallies seen during prior cycles. Hougan describes the outlook as a “10-year grind upward” characterized by steady appreciation, lower volatility than earlier years, and intermittent pullbacks—growth that is strong, but not spectacular.
Why 2026 could be positive for BTC
Hougan reiterated his view that 2026 will be a constructive year for Bitcoin, a forecast he initially shared in July before BTC surged to a new all-time high in October. That optimism is supported by continued institutional adoption and a maturing market structure. While rapid retail trading can amplify short-term volatility, steady, slow-moving institutional buying has helped cap drawdowns, preventing the deep 60% declines that have historically followed some cycle peaks.
Retail rotation and market cycles
Hougan attributes part of Bitcoin’s year-end weakness to the “fast-moving retail crowd” exiting positions in anticipation of the asset’s four-year cycle turning. This retail rotation can magnify declines around cycle peaks. Market participants remain divided on whether the traditional four-year cycle is still intact—some point to the timing of October’s highs as consistent with past peaks, while others warn the dynamics may be shifting.
ReserveOne CIO Sebastian Beau highlighted the recent volatility, noting that Bitcoin fell roughly 30% from its October highs—painful for many, but far less severe than declines seen in prior cycles. Beau and other analysts also stress that regulatory clarity, including the SEC’s classification of Bitcoin as a commodity, underpins its longer-term investment thesis.
Price context and analyst views
Bitcoin is trading at $87,818 at the time of publication, down 3.81% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap. Despite the pullback, persistent institutional accumulation has supported the market. Some veteran traders remain cautious; for example, Peter Brandt has suggested Bitcoin could revisit the $60,000 area by mid-to-late 2026, illustrating the range of risk scenarios investors should consider.
Political and macro influences
Political events, such as changes in U.S. administration, have occasionally coincided with price moves—Bitcoin hit new highs early in 2025 following Donald Trump’s inauguration—but Hougan believes the potential upside from such developments is limited. With clearer regulatory positioning and growing institutional participation, he says there’s not much more marginal policy action that would dramatically elevate Bitcoin’s price.
For crypto investors, the takeaway is practical: expect Bitcoin to remain a long-term growth asset within a diversified crypto allocation, but plan for periodic volatility and tempered annual returns compared with historic blowout years. Institutional demand, clearer regulatory frameworks, and the ongoing maturation of the crypto market should continue to support BTC’s case as a core digital-asset exposure.
Source: cointelegraph
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