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CryptoQuant flags sustained bearish signals for Bitcoin
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, warns that Bitcoin (BTC) may have entered a bear market roughly two months ago. Drawing on a blend of on-chain indicators that measure network activity, investor profitability and market liquidity, Moreno says several metrics have been flashing warning signs for weeks. The most definitive confirmation, he argues, would be BTC falling below its one-year moving average — a long-used boundary between bull and bear regimes.
Current price action and realized-price floor
Bitcoin began 2025 near $93,000 and surged to an October peak around $126,000, but it now trades near $88,000. Based on realized-price analysis, Moreno estimates a potential bear-market bottom near $56,000. That level represents about a 55% drawdown from the cycle peak.
Why this downturn might be milder than past cycles
Despite the ominous indicators, there is reason for measured optimism. A 55% decline is materially shallower than the 70–80% collapses seen in prior cycles. Moreno attributes the difference to structural market shifts: institutional investors and crypto funds with long-term mandates now make up a larger share of BTC holdings and tend not to liquidate during short-term shocks. Additionally, the current cycle lacks the systemic collapses that exacerbated 2022's downturns.
Implications for traders and long-term holders
Traders should watch on-chain liquidity metrics, the one-year moving average, and realized price bands for confirmation of trend direction. Long-term investors may view price weakness as accumulation opportunity, while risk management remains critical amid heightened volatility. As always, monitor on-chain signals, order book liquidity and macro factors that could swing sentiment rapidly.
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