Scaramucci: Smaller Bitcoin Drop Signals Buyer Resilience

Scaramucci calls current decline a bear market but sees a silver lining

SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci told CNBC at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium that Bitcoin is in a bear market, yet the recent drawdown could contain a constructive signal for long-term investors. While BTC has slipped sharply from its October 2025 all-time high, Scaramucci argued the fall has been shallower than prior cycle collapses and may reflect stronger underlying demand.

How deep was the recent drawdown?

Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October 2025 and later plunged below $60,000 during a June 2026 liquidation wave. Depending on exchange and intraday pricing, that represented roughly a 53% to 55% peak-to-trough decline. Scaramucci described the move as about a 55% drop, noting that Bitcoin has since recovered toward $64,000 and now sits approximately 49% below its record.

He contrasted this pullback with previous bear markets, when Bitcoin routinely fell around 75% to 80%. That relative resilience, he suggested, could signal a larger cohort of net buyers defending key support levels compared with past cycles.

Why a smaller drawdown may matter — and why caution is still warranted

A shallower pullback can be an encouraging sign, but it is not a guarantee of a market bottom. Scaramucci emphasized that a smaller drawdown may point to more patient capital and institutional interest, yet acknowledged this remains his interpretation rather than a confirmed market indicator.

Market dynamics such as leverage, concentrated liquidations, macroeconomic events, and ETF flows can still produce abrupt volatility. Compressed volatility and elevated leverage increase the risk of sudden moves in either direction, leaving short-term outcomes uncertain.

Capital rotation toward AI and its impact on crypto flows

Scaramucci attributed part of Bitcoin's subdued price action to capital rotating into artificial intelligence equities and related strategies. Institutional and retail flows diverted into AI-focused funds after Bitcoin's late-2025 peak, and prominent asset managers reported large inflows into AI products while some crypto vehicles saw outflows.

He also noted that several publicly listed Bitcoin miners pursued revenue diversification by leasing data-center capacity and pursuing AI high-performance computing contracts as mining margins cooled. That shift underscores how capital and compute resources can move between crypto mining and adjacent AI infrastructure opportunities.

BlackRock's flow data echoed this view, showing outsized inflows into AI funds following Bitcoin's high and comparatively modest flows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products. Asset managers framed recent BTC weakness as a function of deleveraging and transient flow dynamics rather than a change to longer-term fundamentals.

Institutional views versus market certainty

Institutional assessments, including Scaramucci's and BlackRock's, reflect professional judgment and data-driven observations but do not constitute certainty about future price action. Market outcomes will ultimately depend on investor demand, macro conditions, interest rates, leverage in spot and derivatives markets, and regulatory developments across jurisdictions.

Halving timeline and the four-year cycle

Scaramucci reiterated the importance of Bitcoin's four-year issuance cycle in his outlook. After the April 2024 halving, the block subsidy dropped to 3.125 BTC per block. The next halving is expected around 2028, with timing subject to block production rates.

He argued that a future halving could tighten new supply and support higher prices, forecasting Bitcoin could climb back above $100,000 after the next supply reduction. He was careful to avoid giving a precise timetable, acknowledging markets can consolidate or trend sideways before any cyclical recovery materializes.

Supply-side drivers are only part of the picture

While halvings reduce new issuance, price formation relies equally on demand. Spot ETF flows, institutional allocations, macro liquidity, and on-chain behavior such as long-term holder accumulation all interact with the issuance schedule to determine near- and medium-term price action.

Counterpoints from cycle research and capitulation signals

Not all market analysis points to an immediate turn. Research from VanEck found multiple capitulation indicators were active in the recent period. Their testing suggested clusters of capitulation signals did not reliably outperform Bitcoin's baseline over three- to six-month windows, with outperformance more visible over a one-year horizon in a limited sample.

VanEck estimated a possible accumulation phase between September and November, but stressed historical patterns do not guarantee short-term outperformance.

Key levels and short-term risks

Bitcoin's ability to sustain and build support above the $64,000 to $65,000 zone will be an important near-term test. U.S. spot ETF flows, derivative leverage, economic data, and policy moves may influence direction over coming weeks.

Scaramucci's central argument rests on relative resilience: this bear market has been shallower than some prior cycles, which could imply firmer buyer presence. Yet the market remains nearly 50% below its all-time high and exposed to the usual mix of liquidity-driven shocks, macro shifts, and sentiment-driven flows.

For traders and investors in crypto and blockchain assets, the takeaway is nuanced: a smaller drawdown can be encouraging for long-term accumulation strategies, but prudent risk management remains essential given ongoing volatility and structural uncertainty in markets across spot ETFs, derivatives, and mining economics.