Bitcoin Bull Score Hits 90 as Buyers Pull Back From ETFs

Bitcoin's Bull Score Climbs to 90 — But Buying Momentum Is Waning

Bitcoin's onchain Bull Score has surged to 90 out of 100 after the latest rally, signaling broadly bullish market structure. Yet beneath that strong headline indicator, several demand metrics are flashing caution: spot demand has contracted, futures growth has collapsed, and recent buyers are sitting on unusually large unrealized gains. BTC traded around $83,300 in Asian hours on Wednesday, down from an eight-month peak near $87,400, as profit taking and deleveraging limited further upside.

What the Bull Score Reflects and Why It Matters

CryptoQuant's Bull Score aggregates multiple on-chain and market indicators into a single reading intended to capture whether market conditions align with a bull regime. The recent break above Bitcoin's 365-day moving average — a level CryptoQuant treats as a bull-market confirmation — helped push the reading to 90, leaving BTC only 10 points shy of the theoretical maximum.

A high Bull Score typically suggests healthier trends across metrics such as realized profits, long-term holder behavior, and moving-average crossovers. However, it is not a volume or demand gauge; it doesn't directly measure whether fresh buying is arriving to absorb available BTC supply. That distinction matters when evaluating the sustainability of any rally.

Bitcoin price context

• Recent high: near $87,400
• Trading around: $83,300 (as of Wednesday morning in Asia)
• Immediate resistance: $85,000 to $85,800
• Key support area identified by research teams: $81,500 to $83,000

Spot Demand Is Falling Despite ETF Inflows

Onchain demand metrics tracked by CryptoQuant tell a different story. Their apparent demand measure — which compares newly mined Bitcoin to changes in coins that have been unmoved for at least one year — shows spot demand contracting by roughly 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days. In plain terms, the market has absorbed fewer coins than are becoming available, an important sign that buyer appetite is softening despite positive momentum indicators.

That contraction comes even after a period of significant U.S. spot ETF inflows. During Sept. 21–25, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded about $2.39 billion in weekly inflows, with all five trading sessions ending with net inflows. BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $1.16 billion of that total, and Sept. 21 and Sept. 22 saw sizable single-day inflows of $999 million and $714.7 million respectively. These flows helped lift BTC through key price levels, but they have not translated into sustained spot demand growth on chain.

Exchange flow data also hinted at changing supply dynamics. Binance experienced a single-day net outflow of more than 13,800 BTC last week — its largest since 2023 — and its visible BTC reserves fell from roughly 705,000 BTC to 685,000 BTC over four days. While withdrawals reduce the amount of immediately tradable supply on exchanges, they do not reveal the intention behind the movement: custody, long-term holding, or off-exchange trading could all explain the outflows.

Futures Demand and Leverage Have Been Rapidly Eroding

Weakness is starker in derivatives markets. CryptoQuant estimates that speculative futures demand growth dropped from about 164,000 BTC on Sept. 14 to just 16,000 BTC by Sept. 29 — a decrease of roughly 90% in 15 days. That kind of slowdown suggests leveraged traders pulled back quickly after BTC failed to hold the $87,000 area.

Derivative-specific metrics underscore the retrenchment:

Key derivatives indicators

• Binance BTC open interest: down from ~$5.4 billion to ~$4.9 billion between Sept. 21 and Sept. 23
• Cumulative volume delta: fell from nearly $3 billion to about $1.48 billion in the same period
• Funding rates: eased toward neutral as leveraged participants reduced exposure

Falling open interest and flattened funding rates reduce the liquidation risk that can amplify rallies, but they also indicate less speculative demand available to push prices higher.

Profit Taking and Larger Unrealized Gains Create Headwinds

Another layer of vulnerability comes from increased profit taking. Recent buyers now hold average unrealized profits of about 33% — the highest level since December 2024, according to CryptoQuant. When unrealized gains increase materially, the incentive to realize profits rises as well.

On Sept. 22, investors realized profits on 25,700 BTC, marking the largest single day of realized profit-taking this year. Long-term holders were also active: data showed 12,153 BTC leaving exchanges between Sept. 17 and Sept. 23, evidence that some participants used the rally to de-risk positions or move coins into custody outside of exchange liquidity pools.

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, summarized the dilemma succinctly: 'Without fresh demand, rallies struggle to extend.' In other words, high Bull Scores and technical breakouts can stall if new buying — both spot and futures — fails to appear.

Technical and Liquidity Levels to Watch

Even with a Bull Score near the top of CryptoQuant's scale, BTC faces clear tactical levels traders are watching. The $85,000 region has emerged as an immediate hurdle, with sell orders concentrated between $85,000 and $85,800 after the pullback. Bitfinex analysts pointed to a dense buyer cost area around $85,000 to $86,500, meaning reclamation of that zone could be decisive for near-term upside.

On the downside, support near $83,000 — and a broader pullback zone between $81,500 and $83,000 highlighted by Bitget Wallet research lead Lacie Zhang — will be critical to defend if buyers remain scarce.

Macro Backdrop: Rates, PCE Data, and Liquidity

Macro conditions add another variable to Bitcoin's trajectory. U.S. Treasury yields have climbed to multi-year highs as markets price persistent inflation and the possibility of continued Federal Reserve tightening. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached roughly 5.23% on Wednesday after trading near its highest level since 2007.

Traders were looking ahead to the August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report — a key data point the Fed monitors closely — which could sway expectations for the central bank's next rate decision. Higher-than-expected inflation might keep yields elevated and increase the opportunity cost of holding risk assets, while softer data could ease policy concerns and potentially support risk-on flows into crypto.

Outlook: What Would Signal a Sustainable Move Higher?

For Bitcoin to resume a durable advance toward — and beyond — the recent high near $87,400, fresh demand needs to show up across multiple fronts:

• Renewed spot buying beyond ETF inflows, reflected in a reversal of apparent demand contraction.
• A rebound in speculative futures growth and open interest that suggests risk-on positioning can accelerate price action without immediate deleveraging.
• Absorption of sell-side pressure around $85,000 to $86,500 and reestablishment of that zone as support.

Absent those developments, BTC may trade within the current range as profit-taking and reduced leverage cap rallies. But the high Bull Score does mean the broader conditions remain more favorable to upside than to a bearish breakdown — provided buyers return.

Key levels and indicators to monitor

• Immediate resistance: $85,000–$85,800
• Short-term support: $81,500–$83,000
• Onchain demand: apparent demand change (30-day change), long-term holder flows
• Derivatives: futures demand growth, open interest, funding rates
• Macro: U.S. 10-year yield, PCE inflation data

Conclusion

Bitcoin's Bull Score at 90 highlights that many structural measures still look bullish after the move above the 365-day moving average. However, the decline in spot demand (about 170,000 BTC over 30 days), the roughly 90% collapse in futures demand growth over 15 days, and concentrated profit taking among recent buyers together create a challenging environment for extending the rally. Traders and investors should watch ETF flows, on-chain demand gauges, derivatives metrics, and macro data — particularly incoming inflation prints — to gauge whether BTC can reclaim its recent high and sustain another leg up.

Monitoring these indicators will be essential for deciding whether current weakness is a temporary pullback in a broader bull market or the start of a period where rallies require fresh capital to persist.