XRP Whale Outflows Reach Five-Year Low as Price Wavers

XRP whale outflows from Binance have dropped to their lowest level in five years, even as the token trades near $1.30 amid muted market momentum. This report synthesizes on-chain flow data, technical indicators and network governance developments to give a comprehensive read of XRP’s current market backdrop.

Key takeaways

• Crypto analyst Darkfost reports that Binance-based XRP whale outflows fell to a 90-day moving average of $49.7 million, a five-year low.
• That average is roughly 98.6% lower than the approximately $3.5 billion peak recorded in February 2025.
• XRP was trading near $1.30 on Oct. 20, with daily indicators and EMAs indicating limited buying pressure.
• Analyst Carolina highlighted potential longer-term bullish patterns, but those scenarios require confirmation with volume and price action.
• An XRPL bug-fix amendment (fixCleanup3_4_0) could activate on Oct. 23 if validator support remains above the required threshold, while proposed lending amendments remain short of approval.

Binance whale outflows hit five-year low — what the numbers show

Darkfost’s October 20 analysis points to a dramatic reduction in the dollar value of large XRP withdrawals from Binance, measured as a 90-day moving average. The reported $49.7 million reading is close to levels last seen in October 2021 and represents a near-total retracement from the February 2025 spike of around $3.5 billion.

That 2025 peak was roughly 70 times larger than the latest reading. Because these flow measures are dollar-denominated, they are influenced both by changes in XRP’s market price and by the number of tokens transferred. Exchange outflows indicate assets moving from exchange custody to external addresses, and they are commonly examined by analysts for potential accumulation signals from large holders.

However, withdrawals alone do not prove who ultimately owns the funds or whether the move represents accumulation, custody transfers or operational activity. Exchanges frequently move assets for internal accounting, cold wallet storage, custodial arrangements and other non-market operations. As a result, a decline in recorded outflows does not automatically mean whales have stopped buying XRP.

Darkfost interprets the subdued withdrawal activity as a sign that major holders have significantly reduced active withdrawals, perhaps waiting on lower prices or clearer catalysts before increasing exposure. He contrasted the current quiet with 2022–2023 episodes when lower XRP prices coincided with higher large-holder movement in his historical dataset.

Why a 90-day average matters

A 90-day moving average smooths daily volatility and reduces the impact of outlier transfer days, offering a clearer view of medium-term behavior among big transfers. It captures roughly three months of activity, so a fall in this measure reflects a prolonged reduction in sizeable withdrawals rather than a one-day anomaly.

Price action: XRP hovers near $1.30 with technicals tilted to sellers

According to CoinGecko data cited on Oct. 20, XRP traded around $1.30 with a market capitalization near $82 billion and 24-hour volume close to $1.28 billion. The 24-hour price band was $1.29–$1.32, and the seven-day range sat between $1.26 and $1.38.

On the daily chart, XRP remained below its primary exponential moving averages (EMAs): the 20-day EMA at $1.3689, the 50-day EMA at $1.3743, the 100-day EMA at $1.3353 and the 200-day EMA at $1.3742. These EMAs cluster to form a resistance zone roughly between $1.33 and $1.37, creating an intermediate barrier for any recovery attempt.

XRP price chart, source: TradingView

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated subdued momentum: the supplied chart placed RSI at 36.49 with a signal average at 39.83. Readings below 50 typically point to weaker upward momentum; an RSI below 30 is commonly used to highlight oversold conditions, but XRP has not reached that level. RSI can remain depressed for extended periods or recover without an immediate trend reversal, so it should be read in context with price and volume.

What the EMAs and RSI imply

• Being below the 20/50/100/200-day EMAs signals that recent sentiment and momentum favor sellers.
• A decisive close above the clustered EMAs would be needed to shift the medium-term bias toward bulls.
• The RSI around 36 suggests limited buying strength, but not an extreme oversold condition. A renewed push above 50 on RSI, combined with rising volume, would support a more bullish case.

Support and resistance levels, plus possible recovery paths

Technical assessments cited immediate support around $1.28–$1.30. If that zone breaks and holds to the downside, the next support corridor is identified near $1.20–$1.25, with a deeper cushion around $1.00–$1.05 in a more pronounced sell-off.

On the upside, initial resistance aligns with the 100-day EMA near $1.3353. Beyond that, the broader resistance pocket between $1.37 and $1.38 would need to be overcome for a meaningful recovery. An intraday or multi-day close decisively above $1.38 could open technical pathways toward $1.45–$1.50 in some scenarios — though these are chart-based targets, not guaranteed outcomes.

Longer-term scenarios from analysts

Crypto analyst Carolina outlined a longer-range accumulation thesis. She highlighted an accumulation area forming across XRP’s historical price action and identified $0.50–$0.60 as a potential support band in the event of a much deeper correction. Carolina sketched out a hypothetical upward sequence that included intermediate targets such as $1.50, $1.80 and $2.40, and a more ambitious eventual projection near $5 — emphasizing that such figures depend on future price behavior and are not assured.

In a separate note, Carolina suggested a possible inverse head-and-shoulders pattern forming around the $1 area. If the right shoulder completes and the price breaks above the neckline with meaningful volume, she placed a possible target near $2.80. Technical analysts generally wait for a confirmed breakout above the neckline accompanied by higher trading volume before labeling that structure as a resolved bullish reversal.

The difference between the near-term and longer-term outlooks is significant: near-term charts point to support at $1.28 and resistance at $1.38, while Carolina’s deeper accumulation thesis assumes a substantially lower base during more severe corrections.

ETF flows and exchange reserves — different metrics, different signals

Market participants should note the distinction between ETF fund flows and on-chain exchange flows. Spot XRP ETF flows record net subscriptions and redemptions in investment products, while exchange outflows track transfers from a centralized trading venue to external addresses. The two measures capture different segments of demand: one is institutional product demand, the other is token movement on-chain.

A recent weekly report referenced $1.84 million in net withdrawals across U.S. spot XRP ETFs, which ended a run of 13 consecutive weeks of inflows. On Oct. 19, daily ETF flows were flat — neither net inflows nor net outflows — a reading that does not by itself signal a renewed institutional buying trend.

Separately, exchange reserves (tokens held on exchanges) rose in some periods, which offers another lens into investor behavior that is distinct from the whale-withdrawal metric highlighted by Darkfost.

XRPL governance: bug fix nears activation, lending proposals lag

Network-level changes on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) add another dimension to the ecosystem story. The fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment — a bug-fix and cleanup package addressing transaction handling, automated market maker functionality and parts of the lending codebase — had accumulated sufficient validator support to start the two-week approval window as of Oct. 19.

The amendment showed 29 affirmative votes among 35 trusted validators, meeting the XRPL voting rules’ minimum required majority. Support must remain above 80% continuously for two weeks before the amendment can activate, and the latest tracker estimated an eligible activation around 09:34 UTC on Oct. 23, subject to voting stability. The actual activation occurs at a qualifying flag ledger after the waiting period, not strictly at the time the period expires.

Lending-related amendments still short of approval

While the cleanup package approached activation, proposed lending amendments remained under-supported. LendingProtocol and LendingProtocolV1_1 each recorded 19 affirmative votes as of the Oct. 19 snapshot — 10 votes short of the 29 needed for passage. SingleAssetVault, intended to pool assets for lending operations, had 21 supporting votes and required eight more to reach the same threshold. A confidentiality-related amendment showed 22 votes, also below the required majority.

Transaction batching, a separate amendment, had already activated on Oct. 9 according to the update. The XRPL software release in September distributed v3.4.0 server code that included both the cleanup and lending amendments, but validator approval is required before the proposed rules take effect on the live network.

What this means for traders, institutions and long-term holders

• For traders: The short-term technical picture favors caution. Price under the key EMAs and a sub-50 RSI point to constrained upside until XRP clears the $1.33–$1.37 resistance area. Watch for a break and follow-through above these EMAs with higher volume to validate a bullish shift.
• For institutions and product managers: ETF flows and exchange outflows measure distinct facets of demand. Flat or outflowing ETF flows do not automatically map onto on-chain accumulation patterns, and vice versa. Institutions will likely monitor both ETF flows and custody movement when refining allocation decisions.
• For long-term holders: Lower whale outflows could reflect patient accumulation strategies or simple operational reduction in exchange withdrawals. Long-term investors should weigh on-chain metrics alongside fundamentals such as XRPL upgrades, regulatory developments and broader macro liquidity conditions.

Risks and watchpoints

• A decisive break below $1.28 could expose lower supports in the $1.20–$1.25 band or even toward $1.00–$1.05 if selling intensifies.
• Failure of validator support to hold for the cleanup amendment could delay network fixes and contribute to uncertainty around downstream features such as lending.
• Market-wide crypto risk appetite and macro liquidity remain important drivers for XRP’s price action; isolated on-chain metrics should be combined with cross-market analysis.

Conclusion

XRP’s five-year low in Binance-measured whale outflows is a notable data point: it signals significantly reduced large-holder withdrawal activity relative to the February 2025 peak. Yet that decline does not unambiguously translate to buying or selling conclusions without context from other metrics, including exchange deposits, ETF fund flows and network governance developments.

Technically, XRP trades in a narrow band near $1.30 under several key EMAs, with the RSI pointing to limited buying pressure. Near-term recovery would require a sustained move above the $1.33–$1.37 resistance cluster, ideally accompanied by higher volume. On the protocol side, the fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment looks set to activate if validator support remains steady, while lending-related proposals still need additional votes before they can go live.

Market participants should treat the whale outflow reading as one of several inputs when assessing XRP’s risk/reward, and continue to monitor price structure, on-chain flows, ETF activity and XRPL voting updates for a holistic view of the token’s trajectory.