3 Minutes
Tom Lee’s Bold Claim
Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine and co‑founder of Fundstrat, has reignited the debate over whether Ether (ETH) can overtake Bitcoin (BTC). Lee predicts ETH could reach $60,000 within five years and assigns a 50% probability to the so‑called "flippening" — where Ethereum surpasses Bitcoin in market capitalization or relative dominance. While Ether enjoyed a striking rally in the summer of 2025, a long‑term flip remains a contested outcome among crypto investors and analysts.
The ETH/BTC price chart | Source: TradingView
Where Ether stands: recent performance and context
After a strong summer performance, Ether climbed from about 0.019 BTC in April to roughly 0.04 BTC in 2025. In USD terms, ETH touched about $4,280 on Sept. 6 after rallying ~92.5% year‑over‑year. Yet ETH/BTC remains below peaks seen in 2018 (0.13 BTC) and 2021 (0.08–0.09 BTC), illustrating that Ether has not consistently outpaced Bitcoin in BTC terms since 2021.
Why proponents believe ETH can challenge BTC
Supporters point to institutional flows, product innovation, and strategic corporate treasuries. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw outsized inflows in mid‑2025 — outpacing spot Bitcoin ETF demand — and BitMine’s pivot to build a substantial ETH treasury (holding over 1.71 million ETH as of Aug. 25) underscores a new wave of corporate accumulation. Additional narratives include the expanding stablecoin ecosystem on Ethereum, EU discussions about using Ethereum for a digital euro, and network utility driven by DeFi and smart contracts.
Drivers of the 2025 ETH rally
- Large institutional spot ETF inflows and growing demand
- Corporate treasuries accumulating ETH (BitMine among them)
- Decreasing ETH supply on exchanges and increased staking/treasury holdings
- Macro tailwinds (liquidity and rate expectations)
Obstacles and risks to the flippening
Despite the momentum, several structural and market risks limit ETH’s path to flipping BTC. Bitcoin remains the largest store of crypto market value with a dominant market cap and narrative as digital gold. Ethereum’s uncapped issuance, competition from other smart‑contract platforms (e.g., Solana, Tron), and past selling pressure from foundations or large holders all pose headwinds. Converting impressive short‑term ETF inflows into a sustainable market‑cap lead would require prolonged demand and structural shifts in treasury allocations across corporates and institutions.
Bottom line
Tom Lee’s 50% probability is headline‑worthy and reflects how institutional adoption can reshape crypto market dynamics. Nonetheless, a flippening remains uncertain: it’s plausible under sustained ETF flows, corporate treasury accumulation, and meaningful appreciation in USD terms — but Bitcoin’s entrenched market dominance and Ethereum’s supply profile make the path uphill. Traders and investors should weigh both macro drivers and on‑chain metrics when assessing ETH/BTC trajectories.
Source: crypto
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