6 Minutes
Why a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Matters
Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, says there is a "strong chance" the United States will formally establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) and hold BTC as an official strategic asset before year-end. Thorn argues that markets are underestimating the probability of a government announcement, while other industry voices remain skeptical. This debate has significant implications for Bitcoin price action, national crypto policy, and global digital asset competition.
Thorn’s Case: Markets Are Underpricing the Odds
In a recent post on X, Thorn emphasized that the market appears to be discounting the likelihood that the U.S. will announce a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve this year. His view is rooted in a combination of political signals and on-chain developments, and he believes the formation of an SBR could be imminent if Washington moves from policy language to execution.
What Thorn is watching
Thorn points to executive-level communications and policy nudges that suggest the idea is more than theoretical. If the U.S. does begin accumulating Bitcoin as a strategic asset, it would represent a major change in how sovereign reserves and national asset strategies intersect with crypto markets.
Where the Plan Stands Now
While there are clear indications of momentum, a fully formalized strategy has not been published. The original reporting noted that the White House signed an executive order in March establishing the concept of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. However, a complete operational roadmap—detailing acquisition mechanics, governance, custody, and accounting—remains pending.
While US President Trump signed the executive order officially establishing the Strategic Bitcoin BTC $115,780 Reserve and US Digital Asset Stockpile in March, a formalized strategic plan has not been confirmed yet.
Recent Developments Reinforce the Possibility
Several concrete moves suggest the SBR concept is advancing through governmental and legislative channels. For example, a bill introduced by U.S. lawmakers would task the Treasury with studying the feasibility and technical requirements for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. That step moves beyond rhetoric and toward a formal assessment of how a sovereign Bitcoin reserve could be designed and managed.
Policy signals from the administration
Separately, the administration’s crypto policy communications have continued to reference strategic Bitcoin holdings. Trump’s crypto liaison recently confirmed ongoing interest in an SBR, even if the concept was only briefly mentioned in a broader policy report. That kind of continued official attention, combined with legislative inquiries, increases the odds of eventual action.
Skepticism from Industry Leaders
Not all market participants agree with Thorn’s timeline. Dave Weisburger, the former chairman of CoinRoutes, argued the SBR is more likely to be realized in 2026 rather than this year. He and others point to the logistical and political complexities: building a legally defensible acquisition strategy, securing custody, and managing domestic and international reactions are all nontrivial hurdles.
Concerns about timing and accumulation
Weisburger has often suggested that the administration will avoid public announcements until it has quietly accumulated an initial target amount. That implies a cautious, behind-the-scenes build-out rather than a public proclamation followed by rapid purchasing.
Global Competition and the Risk of Falling Behind
Some Bitcoin advocates warn that a prolonged U.S. delay could let other nations take the lead in sovereign Bitcoin accumulation. Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, has argued that the U.S. "has to start" acquiring Bitcoin this year or risk being outpaced by countries that move more swiftly. He has highlighted the potential for geopolitical implications if emerging economies or smaller states prioritize Bitcoin reserves while the U.S. stalls.
Case in point: Kyrgyzstan has recently advanced a bill to establish a state cryptocurrency reserve, and Indonesian Bitcoin advocates have met with government officials to discuss how a national BTC strategy could bolster economic growth. These developments underline a broader trend — governments increasingly view Bitcoin not just as an investment, but as a potential component of national economic strategy.
Market and Infrastructure Considerations
Creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would require clear answers on custody, auditing, accounting standards, and market impact. The Treasury’s feasibility study would likely touch on technical considerations such as cold storage vs. multisig custody, the use of regulated custodians, and the potential effects of large sovereign purchases on Bitcoin liquidity and price discovery.
For cryptocurrency markets, an official U.S. SBR could be a foundational event: it would validate Bitcoin’s status as a reserve asset in the eyes of policymakers and institutions, potentially driving broader adoption among conservative investors and sovereign entities. Conversely, poorly executed accumulation or opaque governance could introduce political backlash and reputational risk.
What to Watch Next
Key near-term indicators include legislative progress on the Treasury study, additional public statements from administration crypto advisers, and any discreet on-chain accumulation behavior that signals sovereign buying. Market participants should also monitor international moves, as other countries’ reserve strategies could influence both policy formation and Bitcoin price dynamics.
Whether the SBR is announced this year or later, the conversation around sovereign Bitcoin holdings is accelerating. For traders, investors, and policymakers, the debate highlights the growing intersection of national strategy and digital assets, and reinforces that Bitcoin’s role in global finance is evolving rapidly.
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