4 Minutes
CryptoQuant Signals: Bitcoin Might Be Two Months Into a Bear Market
Bitcoin may already be two months into a bear market, according to on-chain and market metrics highlighted by CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno. Using an index that blends network activity, investor profitability, liquidity and demand, Moreno says the market started showing bearish signals in early November and those signals have not yet recovered.
What the index measures
The CryptoQuant bull score ranges from 0 to 100 and aggregates indicators such as transaction volumes, realized metrics, exchange flows and investor profitability. Moreno emphasized that the decisive confirmation for him was a technical signal: Bitcoin trading below its one-year moving average — a long-term trend line that averages price action over the last 12 months.
Where Bitcoin stands now
The price of Bitcoin BTC $88,957 started 2025 at around $93,000 and peaked at $126,080 in October before ending the year lower than it began, according to crypto data aggregator CoinGecko. If Bitcoin is in a bear market, this view runs counter to many bullish 2026 forecasts from analysts who expect renewed growth after the halving cycle.
Projected bottom: $56,000–$60,000
Based on Bitcoin’s realized price and historical drawdown patterns, Moreno projects the bear market bottom could fall to roughly $56,000 to $60,000 within the next year. The realized price measures the average price at which current Bitcoin holders bought their coins — historically a helpful reference point when prices reach cyclical lows.
Why realized price matters
In prior cycles, realized price often acted as a psychological and technical support level during extended sell-offs. When markets flip from bull to bear, holders with higher basis tend to capitulate first, and the market can test the aggregate realized cost basis before establishing a durable bottom.
The bottom price for the bear market will likely come within the next year, Moreno predicts.
Drawdown may be milder than past cycles
A decline from the all-time high down to $56,000 would translate to a drawdown near 55% — notably less severe than the 70–80% collapses seen in earlier bear markets. Moreno frames that as a potentially constructive development: although any double-digit pullback is painful, a smaller peak-to-trough drop could indicate a healthier long-term market structure for Bitcoin and the broader crypto sector.
Structural differences this cycle
This bear phase differs from 2022 in key ways. The 2022 downturn featured high-profile failures — Terra, Celsius and FTX — that cascaded through liquidity pools and eroded investor confidence. Today, Moreno points to a more resilient ecosystem: fewer systemic collapses, steady institutional accumulation, and periodic buyers such as ETFs and large custodians that tend to purchase without wholesale selling.
These institutional flows, together with a deeper pool of retail and professional traders, provide ongoing demand that can cushion sell-offs and speed recovery when risk appetite returns.
Implications for traders and investors
For investors, the CryptoQuant signal highlights the importance of monitoring realized metrics, moving averages and on-chain liquidity rather than relying solely on macro narratives. Risk management remains vital: dollar-cost averaging, diversification across spot and derivatives, and careful position sizing can help navigate a potentially prolonged correction.
For traders, volatility remains an opportunity: range-bound price action and retreats toward realized price levels can create setups for momentum plays, mean-reversion trades, or option-based income strategies.
Bottom line
CryptoQuant’s data-driven view suggests Bitcoin could have entered a bear market in early November, with a possible bottom between $56,000 and $60,000 over the coming year. While the projected drawdown is significant, structural improvements — including institutional demand and fewer contagion risks — may make this cycle less destructive than past bear markets. As always, investors should weigh on-chain signals, technical indicators and personal risk tolerance when planning exposure to BTC and the wider crypto market.
Source: cointelegraph
Comments
mechbyte
Feels overhyped but ok. Calling a 55% drawdown 'milder' is odd, that's still brutal. DCA, hedges, stop losses, dont sleep on liquidity, if that’s real then…
coinflux
Is this even true? BTC below its 1yr MA since Nov sounds dramatic, but realized price 56,000 to 60,000... feels like a guess without macro data
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