Bitcoin Climbs to $65.3K as Weak US Jobs Cool Fed Hike Odds

Bitcoin rises as markets digest weaker US jobs data

Bitcoin surged to month-to-date highs above $65,000 on Friday as traders priced in a softer Federal Reserve response after unexpectedly weak US nonfarm payrolls. BTC/USD briefly reached $65,340 on Bitstamp, up roughly 1.3% on the day, while broader risk assets also moved higher as the jobs report trimmed expectations for a September rate hike.

BTC/USD four-hour chart.

Market reaction: stocks and crypto both advance

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, data that markets interpreted as signaling a cooling labor market. The S&P 500 opened about 0.5% higher and the Nasdaq Composite added just over 1% as investors reduced odds of another immediate Fed rate increase. Crypto markets followed, with bitcoin and major altcoins showing resilience after a choppy week.

What the payroll revisions mean

BLS revisions to prior months amplified the report’s impact: May payrolls were revised down by 66,000 (from +129,000 to +63,000) and June by 37,000 (from +57,000 to +20,000), leaving total employment for May and June about 103,000 lower than previously reported. Those downward revisions reinforced the narrative of a slowing jobs backdrop and raised the possibility of less aggressive policy tightening from the Fed.

Fed outlook: markets shift toward a pause

Following the report, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed market odds moving sharply toward the Federal Reserve holding rates steady at its September meeting rather than delivering a 25-basis-point hike that had been seen as likely as recently as the previous session. Investors will now watch upcoming speeches around the Jackson Hole symposium and next month’s economic data for further clues on the Fed’s path.

Fed target-rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting.

Analyst reactions and macro context

Industry analysts said the payroll print would be pivotal for both rate decision expectations and tone at Jackson Hole. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, noted the jobs figures would help set expectations for September and the central bank’s messaging. Fabian Dori, CIO at Sygnum Bank, warned that a measured, orderly slowdown could support liquidity relief, while a sharper slowdown might still pressure risk assets despite lower rate-hike odds.

Crypto-specific analysis: resilience, not confirmation

Trading desk QCP Capital described the current macro picture as uncertain for bitcoin but highlighted the market’s relative resilience in the face of recent shocks. The firm pointed to limited demand for panic protection in options markets despite supply-side events such as the Coldcard wallet exploit and reported BTC sales by corporate holders. That muted options activity suggests traders are treating recent volatility as manageable rather than the start of a large-scale sell-off.

Option market commentary has also raised the prospect of a BTC trading-range break next month, but for now the dominant theme is that bitcoin and many altcoins are holding firm while macro news reshapes expectations for interest rates.

What to watch next

Traders and crypto investors should monitor upcoming US economic releases, Fed commentary around Jackson Hole, and option market positioning. With the Federal Reserve’s path now appearing more data-dependent, each jobs print and inflation reading will likely continue to move cryptocurrency prices and risk assets in the short term. For bitcoin, a sustained close above the mid-$60k range would strengthen bullish conviction, while renewed weakness in employment or sticky inflation could quickly reverse market sentiment.