CLARITY Act Odds 10% Before Midterms, Solana CEO Predicts

Solana Policy Institute CEO gives CLARITY Act slim pre-midterm odds

Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine told attendees at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium on Aug. 18 that the CLARITY Act has roughly a 10% chance of becoming law before the U.S. midterm elections. His assessment reflects frustration with a shrinking congressional calendar, unresolved industry disputes and competing financial-sector interests that he said have pushed the digital asset market-structure bill into what he called "August recess purgatory." This figure represents his personal judgment rather than an official forecast, and it applies specifically to passage prior to November’s midterms.

What the 10% estimate means

Whitehouse-Levine’s 10% estimate highlights the narrow window remaining for H.R. 3633 to clear procedural and substantive hurdles in the Senate. Senate leaders have filed cloture on the motion to proceed, and a procedural vote is scheduled to ripen at 2:15 p.m. on Sept. 15. If cloture is invoked, the chamber may begin consideration of the bill — but that vote would not constitute final passage. Senate debate, amendment votes and possible House concurrence would still be required before a president could sign any resulting legislation.

September cloture vote is a procedural test

Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 before lawmakers left Washington, preserving a September path. The procedural vote will test whether supporters can assemble the 60-vote threshold needed to overcome a filibuster and move the bill to the floor for debate. Even if cloture succeeds, the legislative path remains long: amendment negotiations, committee holds and potential House coordination could all extend beyond the fall session.

Why the calendar matters for crypto regulation

The Senate’s limited schedule before the election compresses time for complex floor negotiations over a sweeping crypto regulatory framework. Lawmakers must reconcile SEC and CFTC jurisdictional language, decentralized finance (DeFi) oversight, customer protections, and ethics provisions related to government officials’ digital asset holdings — all while navigating election-year politics. As Whitehouse-Levine warned, failure to act now could squander more than a year of congressional work on market-structure reforms for digital assets.

Prediction markets show higher odds

Public prediction markets currently assign higher probabilities than Whitehouse-Levine’s midterm-focused estimate. As of Aug. 19, Polymarket priced a 2026 passage probability at roughly 20% with aggregate trading volume topping $7.2 million. Kalshi traders placed the chance near 23% on Aug. 18, down from about 50% weeks earlier. Those markets allow the CLARITY Act to become law through Dec. 31, giving them a longer deadline and a possible post-election session window — a key reason their prices can be more optimistic than a pre-midterms prediction.

Markets vs. on-the-ground assessments

Prediction markets are useful sentiment gauges but do not guarantee outcomes. They reflect traders’ views of the bill’s prospects across the entire year, while Whitehouse-Levine’s comment specifically concerns passage before November’s midterms. Both perspectives are valuable: markets capture broad expectations and capital flows, whereas industry insiders provide context about real-time legislative dynamics and political bargaining.

Key policy sticking points: stablecoins, ethics and jurisdiction

Industry and financial-sector stakeholders have introduced competing priorities that complicate negotiations. Banks and traditional securities firms are focused on provisions affecting existing business models and, in particular, stablecoin-related rules and rewards. Other participants — including derivatives houses and securities firms — have pushed for language protecting their operations.

Democratic lawmakers have pressed for strict ethics restrictions covering government officials’ digital asset interests, adding another layer to the talks. Central disputes remain over whether the SEC or the CFTC should have primary authority over various token types, how decentralized finance should be regulated, and what consumer-protection guardrails must be included.

Industry implications if CLARITY fails

If the CLARITY Act falters, the outcome would leave the industry in a prolonged period of uncertainty. Firms planning token fundraising pathways, onchain securities activity and expanded derivatives products would face continued legal and regulatory ambiguity. Whitehouse-Levine said regulators cannot afford to keep waiting for Congress, underscoring the need for parallel regulatory efforts by agencies.

SEC proposals advance while Congress stalls

On Aug. 18 the SEC proposed a separate rule package titled Regulation Crypto Assets, creating a different regulatory track while Congress debates broader market-structure legislation. The agency’s proposal includes two exemptions for certain crypto investment contracts: one covering offerings up to $5 million during a four-year period, and another covering up to $75 million over any 12-month window. These proposed rules remain subject to public comment, statutory limits and potential court challenges, and they cannot fully replicate the permanence of federal legislation.

Why agency rules matter

Regulatory action by the SEC and other agencies can provide interim clarity on token offerings, custody, and market conduct even if Congress ultimately adopts a legislative framework. However, agency rules can be narrower in scope and less durable than statutes, making many firms dependent on both rulemaking and legislative fixes to achieve comprehensive certainty.

Next steps and market watch

The next confirmed milestone is the Sept. 15 cloture motion. If the Senate fails to proceed, the CLARITY Act’s chances of becoming law in 2026 would fall sharply. If cloture passes, the bill would remain alive but face a long path of amendments, votes and inter-chamber negotiations. For crypto investors and industry stakeholders, the coming weeks will be a critical test of whether Congress can convert policy talks into concrete, bipartisan legislation or whether agencies like the SEC will continue to fill the regulatory vacuum.

Market participants should monitor Senate calendar updates, prediction market prices on venues such as Polymarket and Kalshi, and forthcoming SEC rulemaking to track how regulatory risk is priced into crypto markets and token fundraising strategies.