Analyst: iPhone Duo Production Limited to 6 Million

Following an earlier note about iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max pre-orders, analyst Jeff Pu now projects much tighter supply for the iPhone Duo. Posted by Vlad on 16 September 2026 in Apple iOS Rumors, Pu says production of the iPhone Duo will be about 6 million units in 2026, down from his prior 7 million estimate, and that the reduced output is driven by manufacturing constraints rather than weak demand.

Pu attributes the cut to problems producing the device's hinge, a component widely reported as complex to make and expected to slow early production.

Hinge production cited as bottleneck

Pu identifies the handset's hinge as the primary limitation. The hinge is the folding mechanism that joins the two halves of the phone; Pu and other reports have repeatedly described it as a challenging component to manufacture at scale. That complexity, he says, is the reason Apple can only put roughly 6 million units into production this year, a decrease from his earlier 7 million forecast.

To put the figure in context, Pu estimates Apple will sell 72 million units of the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max combined by the end of the year. Given that gap between expected sales of the Pro models and the low Duo production number, Pu warns that the iPhone Duo is likely to be hard to obtain during 2026.

Pu adds that Apple will begin taking pre-orders on October 16, and he suggests that customers who want an iPhone Duo should be prepared to place a pre-order when they go live.