6 Minutes
Bitcoin Eyes $180,000 Despite Mixed Signals
VanEck’s latest market report forecasts that Bitcoin (BTC) could climb to $180,000 by year-end, driven by renewed momentum in futures, options, institutional flows and mining fundamentals. While the outlook includes both bullish and bearish scenarios, the asset’s derivatives and on-chain activity over the past 30 days point to growing conviction among traders and institutions.
Derivatives and Options Market: A Bullish Tilt
On Aug. 13, 2025, Bitcoin printed a new record, slightly above July’s high. VanEck highlights that the futures and options markets are showing stronger bullish signals than the price action alone. CME basis funding rates climbed to 9% — the highest level in six months — signaling elevated demand for long exposure in the futures market.
Call/put ratio spikes
The options market saw a notable rise in the call/put ratio to 3.21x, the strongest reading since June 2024, according to VanEck. Call premiums surged to $792 million, a 37% increase from the prior 30-day period, reflecting heavier demand for upside protection or leverage into BTC.
For the same crypto asset, which would you rather own?
— VanEck (@vaneck_us) August 13, 2025
Institutional Demand: ETFs, DATs and Corporate Treasuries
Institutional flows have been a major contributor to upward pressure. VanEck reports that in July, exchange-traded products (ETPs/ETFs) purchased roughly 54,000 BTC, while digital asset treasuries (DATs) added about 72,000 BTC. By contrast, DATs bought 131,355 BTC across Q2 2025, which underlines July’s step-up in corporate treasury accumulation.
Bitcoin treasuries and mNAV pressure
The report also tracked total Bitcoin held on public treasury company balance sheets at roughly 951,000 BTC. VanEck warns that several DATs have experienced declines in market net asset value (mNAV) — a metric sensitive to BTC volatility and balance sheet leverage. Examples cited include a -16% mNAV for MSTR, -62% for MTPLF, and -12% for SMLR. Falling mNAVs make it harder for these firms to issue convertible debt or raise capital to buy more BTC, raising potential dilution risks.
Saylor once said he’d never issue below 2.5x mNAV.
Now, he’s changed course.
He’s signaling a willingness to sell $MSTR even under that threshold.
A real risk of dilution is now on the table.
— Oz Sultan (@OzForNY) August 19, 2025
On-Chain Activity: Transfers, Fees and Ordinals
Network metrics are also supportive of increased usage. Bitcoin network transactions reached 12.9 million — the highest since November 2024 — while median fees fell about 13%, easing frictions for everyday transfers. Total transfer volume spiked to $77.73 billion, a 34% rise over the prior 30 days and up 60% year-over-year.
Ordinals surge and the block data debate
VanEck flagged a 43% month-over-month increase in ordinals minted on Bitcoin, totaling 109,779 in 30 days — up 120% vs. August 2024. This boom in inscriptions (images and non-monetary data stored on-chain) has reignited debate over a proposed change to Bitcoin Core that would remove the 83-byte-per-block limit for arbitrary data. The planned change, scheduled to activate in October for Bitcoin Core nodes, could permit more ordinals per block and risks slowing monetary transactions if adoption scales rapidly.
Read more: Devs accuse colleagues from Bitcoin Core of being rogue over the plans to remove the spam filter from Bitcoin
Mining Fundamentals: Hashrate, Revenue and Miner Flows
Mining metrics are trending positive: August saw hashrate hitting a record 902 EH/s and revenue per EH/s at about $59,400 — the highest in eight months. Miner BTC transfers to exchanges have nearly doubled versus August 2024 but rose only 16% since mid-July 2025, suggesting some stabilization in selling pressure.
Mining equities mixed
Public miners’ equities produced mixed returns. Applied Digital (APLD) was up 54%, Bitfarms (BITF) gained 16%, while others lagged or declined. VanEck noted a 22% drop for Cipher Mining (CIFR) and a 4% decline in the 13-miner index followed by their analysis. U.S.-based mining operations captured a record 31% share in August.
Risks, Volatility and the Path to $180,000
VanEck cautions that volatility could spike, and dealer hedging might amplify price swings. A prolonged period of low volatility may constrain DATs’ ability to raise capital and will likely pressure mNAVs further. Despite these headwinds, the report’s scenario analysis includes a bullish path where BTC reaches $180,000 by year-end. The authors note that earlier predictions — such as a December 2024 forecast for $180,000 in Q1 2025 — proved overly optimistic, as the actual Q1 peak remained well below $110,000 and a 25% correction followed in April.
Still, with elevated futures funding, rising call demand, stronger institutional inflows, record hashrate and growing on-chain activity, VanEck argues the conditions exist for a significant late-year rally — assuming no major macro or regulatory shocks.
What to watch next
- Derivatives signals: funding rates and call/put skew;
- ETP/ETF and DAT flows: pace of corporate treasury purchases;
- Mining indicators: hashrate, miner sell pressure and miner equity performance;
- Core development: changes to Bitcoin Core that affect ordinals and block data limits.
For traders and institutional investors, the VanEck report underscores that derivatives positioning, corporate treasury activity, mining economics and protocol-level changes will be the primary drivers of BTC price action in the coming months.
Comments