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Large Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry lands amid leverage flush
A sizeable options expiry for Bitcoin and Ethereum is set to hit markets, with open interest concentrated near so-called "max pain" strikes. Roughly 147,000 BTC options and 573,000 ETH options are due to expire on Friday, marking one of the larger end-of-month expiries. Market participants are watching put/call ratios, derivatives flows, and liquidity as traders square positions and market makers hedge.
Put/call skew, not panic: positioning remains modestly bullish
Data from Coinglass and Deribit shows put/call ratios below 1 for both assets — about 0.58 for Bitcoin and 0.50 for Ethereum — indicating more call exposure than puts heading into expiry. Open interest on Deribit clusters around the maximum pain strike for BTC, with additional concentration at lower strikes; for ETH the notional exposure is similarly significant. Elevated call interest suggests that, despite recent volatility, market sentiment retains a cautiously constructive tilt.
Leverage washout, not a confirmed bear market
This week’s U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) print surprised to the upside, and derivatives open interest registered a sharp drop. CryptoQuant and other analytics providers described the move as a major leverage washout — a rapid deleveraging event where highly leveraged positions are forced out — rather than clear evidence of a new prolonged bear market. That distinction matters for traders: deleveraging can create short-term price pressure but may also reduce systemic risk and set the stage for renewed accumulation.
What the expiry means for spot prices and market structure
Deribit reports that positioning has stabilized around key support and resistance bands, with market capitalization fairly steady over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin repeatedly tested resistance but remained just under the level seen as pivotal by many traders. Ethereum slipped below a nearby resistance level during Asian hours but likewise showed signs of cooled positioning after recent selling.
Key takeaways for traders and investors
- Options expiry size: The combined notional for Friday’s BTC and ETH expiries is material and could influence intraday volatility around settlement.
- Open interest clustering: Heavy OI near max-pain strikes highlights critical price zones where hedging flows could amplify moves.
- Put/call ratios: Ratios below 1 point to more call exposure, which can indicate a tilt toward bullish or neutral sentiment despite short-term swings.
- Market context: The recent drop in derivatives OI appears driven by leverage liquidation rather than a structural pivot to bear market conditions — but traders should watch liquidity and macro data closely.
As the expiry approaches, watch order book depth, funding rates, and on-chain indicators such as exchange flows and realized volatility. These signals will help differentiate transient expiry-driven moves from a genuine change in trend for BTC and ETH. Reliable risk management remains essential: large expiries can produce sharp intraday reactions even when the broader mid-term picture stays intact.
Source: crypto
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