Xiaomi Raises Annual Sales Target as Memory Prices Ease

Xiaomi is quietly upping the stakes. After a rough first quarter, the Chinese giant now expects a rebound in smartphone volume — and it’s betting that softer memory prices will make that comeback possible.

Shipments slid to 33.8 million units in Q1 2026, a drop of about 19.2% year-over-year. That decline reflected more than just consumer sentiment; a supply crunch in memory chips and flash storage pushed component bills higher and, in some cases, forced product cancellations or limited rollouts. The ripple was felt across the industry, but Xiaomi appears to be positioning itself for the next chapter.

According to supply-chain sources, the company has raised its full-year target from roughly 90 million smartphones to about 110 million. Most of the extra volume is expected to come from entry-level models — the phones that often bring new users into a brand ecosystem and move quickly when component costs fall.

A person familiar with the matter told reporters that Xiaomi believes memory prices are nearing a turning point. In April, President Lu Weibing noted that the company was paying about CNY1,500 more for a 12GB RAM/512GB storage package than it paid a year earlier — a vivid indicator of how sharply costs have risen. If memory pricing normalizes, margins ease, and supply becomes predictable, Xiaomi could ramp production without sacrificing price competitiveness.

There’s a strategic logic in focusing on entry-level devices now. Lower-tier smartphones are more sensitive to component cost swings, and a stable memory market would allow Xiaomi to price aggressively and push volume where demand remains resilient. But it’s not guaranteed. Memory markets are notoriously cyclical, and a single supplier hiccup or demand surge in other sectors could tilt the balance again.

For consumers, the prospect of stabilized memory prices is simple: more choice at better prices. For smartphone makers, it’s a chance to recalibrate product plans that were shelved or scaled back during the shortage. Whether Xiaomi’s raised target becomes a milestone or a headline depends on how quickly the memory market actually cools — and whether rivals make similar moves to capture the pent-up demand.

Can cheaper RAM and flash really rewrite the next few quarters for Xiaomi? The company is clearly banking on it, and the industry will be watching every price tick and shipment report like a weather vane.