5 Minutes
Nation-state Bitcoin adoption enters 'suddenly' phase
Jan3 founder Samson Mow says nation-state adoption of Bitcoin is shifting from a prolonged, cautious progress into what he calls the 'beginning phases of suddenly.' After years of skepticism, more governments appear ready to move beyond planning and into decisive action on strategic Bitcoin reserves and budget-neutral acquisitions.
From gradual acceptance to rapid adoption
Mow told Danny Knowles on the What Bitcoin Did podcast that adoption often follows a slow, measurable path and then accelerates quickly. 'I think we’re on the tail end of gradually, and we’re at the beginning phases of suddenly,' he said, stressing how quickly new entrants can join the race once political momentum builds. In Mow's view, nation-state FOMO could drive a sharp and rapid increase in demand for BTC once key governments commit to large-scale purchases.
Samson Mow spoke to Danny Knowles on the ‘What Bitcoin Did’ podcast.
U.S. policy moves and the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Although U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing the formation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, Mow notes the federal government has not yet begun substantial purchases. Still, the U.S. is 'pushing forward' on mechanisms such as budget-neutral Bitcoin acquisition and proposed legislation like the Bitcoin Act. Analysts including Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn see a realistic chance the U.S. will formalize a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve before year-end, a development that would likely elevate institutional and sovereign demand.
While the U.S. remains the largest governmental holder of Bitcoin, Mow argues it 'has to start' buying to keep pace. At the time of publication, the U.S. government holds 198,012 Bitcoin, according to Bitbo data.
Regional catalysts and where adoption may surge
Mow singled out Latin America as a region where nation-state adoption could accelerate, citing both political and macroeconomic incentives for countries to diversify reserves with Bitcoin. Across the industry, research from Fidelity Digital Assets has predicted growing interest from central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and government treasuries looking to establish strategic positions in BTC and other crypto assets.
Market timing and price expectations
Although Mow expects a major nation-state-driven demand wave, he also acknowledged that Bitcoin's price action has not yet shown the anticipated 'massive run up' some participants expected for 2025. 'We should have had a bull run already… like a massive run up,' Mow commented, suggesting the current cycle may be delayed and could extend into next year. Other market figures have echoed this view — Bitwise's CIO Matt Hougan has suggested 2026 could be a strong year for crypto markets.
Bitcoin is trading at $109,400 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap
How ETFs and institutional demand reshape cycles
The narrative around Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle has shifted as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional flows become central market drivers. With more institutional infrastructure and regulated products available, price dynamics may evolve differently than in past cycles — potentially concentrating demand into shorter windows when multiple nation-states and large institutions act simultaneously.
What to watch next
Key signals to monitor include concrete purchasing programs by sovereign treasuries, legislation enabling budget-neutral acquisitions, and early adopter announcements from nations in Latin America and other emerging markets. If several governments move to formalize reserves or convert portions of sovereign holdings into BTC, Mow expects a fast-moving, panic-driven wave of adoption that could compress previously gradual timelines into a 'sudden' phase.
Mow has been bullish on long-term price potential; as recently as June he suggested a $1 million Bitcoin price is plausible in the coming cycle, though the timing remains uncertain. For traders, policy watchers, and institutional investors, the interplay between regulatory decisions, sovereign balance-sheet strategies, and ETF flows will be critical to understand the next major leg of BTC adoption.
Source: cointelegraph
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