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Dogecoin rebounds as the SEC decision looms
Dogecoin has staged a modest recovery after sliding to a key support level in September. Traders bought the dip, driving DOGE to about $0.2630 — roughly 16% above its September low — and reigniting debate over whether a likely SEC approval of spot DOGE ETFs could propel the meme-coin to the psychological $1 mark.
What the SEC decision means for spot DOGE ETFs
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly close to deciding on spot DOGE ETF applications from major issuers including Grayscale and Bitwise. Market analysts, such as Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas, have suggested the SEC will approve many ETF filings after publishing a generic standards list outlining criteria for approvals.
Regulated futures and precedent
One of the practical benchmarks the agency looks for is whether a regulated futures market exists. Dogecoin futures are already trading, which improves approval odds. Another positive is that a spot DOGE fund (ticker: DOJE) has already been registered under the Investment Company Act of 1944 and began listing in September. DOJE has gathered over $21 million in assets — a sign that investor demand exists even before other large issuers enter the market.
Technical outlook: can DOGE realistically hit $1?
Dogecoin price chart
From a technical perspective, DOGE’s September low around $0.2200 coincided with the lower edge of an ascending channel. The token subsequently climbed above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages — bullish indicators that show short- and medium-term momentum is improving.
Resistance levels and pattern risk
Near-term upside targets are modest. Bulls are likely to test the year-to-date high near $0.3088, roughly 20% above current levels. For DOGE to reach $1, it would need to rally more than 250% from today’s price — a steep climb given current chart structure. Price action appears to be forming a rising wedge, a pattern that often resolves lower when the converging trendlines meet. That pattern increases the risk of a pullback even if optimism around ETF approvals fuels a short-term squeeze.
Market catalysts beyond ETF approval
ETF approval would be an important catalyst: inflows from indexed products, lower expense ratios from large issuers, and broader retail visibility via brokerage and wallet integrations could boost demand. The ongoing autumn rally in crypto markets — often dubbed "Uptober" — has already lifted many assets and could provide momentum for DOGE if macro conditions remain favorable.
However, the scale of inflows matters. The existing DOJE fund’s early assets show interest, but it’s unclear whether Grayscale- or Bitwise-backed ETFs would attract the scale required to push DOGE toward $1 in the short term. Structural hurdles, profit-taking, and pattern-based sell signals also weigh on immediate upside prospects.
Bottom line
SEC approval of spot DOGE ETFs would be bullish for Dogecoin and likely lift sentiment and trading volume. Still, a move to $1 remains unlikely in the near term given current technical resistance, the rising wedge formation, and the substantial percentage gain required. Expect a measured rally toward prior highs and watch ETF inflows, expense ratios, and broader crypto market momentum for clues on a more sustained breakout.
Source: crypto
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